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I see a qualification there from Joye... i.e. there will be a serious crash IF something else happens first. I can't disagree with that... if Australia ever develops a large enough housing bubble, then there will be a serious crash. But with national house prices having simply tracked income...

What's his prediction?

Yeah, like I have time to trawl through my 20,000+ posts across Somersoft, S&S, APF, CC and the G.HPC archive in order to convince you. In any case, my magnum opus is the $1M Sydney median by 2015, with accompanying construction boom. That's worth at least 100 normal predictions. :) Anyway...

According to that data, the SVR has ranged from 1.01% above my 5.59% fixed rate to 0.06%-0.33% below - i.e. during the time the SVR was below the fixed rate, it was below by an insignificant amount, whereas the time spent above was by a much larger margin. I also fixed some loans at 5.39% and...

To summarise those quotes, since 2007 I've predicted a Sydney boom, with a target value around $1M - $1.25M and a target date around 2014-2015. I've stuck to this range for eight years... http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=362845&postcount=1 You can see my 2007 chart above has Sydney...

Oops, it was a bit large. Have posted a smaller version! :)

Probably my last thread on Somersoft, with the imminent closure of the forum, so I thought I'd finish off with a little chart that illustrates just how badly the property bears have failed over the past decade or so. Clearly the investors here on Somersoft were miles ahead of the housing bears...