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  1. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Hi Token Funder, Interesting to review this thread now that a year has passed. In relation to your post above, how do you feel the tighter availability of funds has impacted property prices over the past year, and how much additional tightening would be required to actually prevent house...
  2. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    It looks like somebody agrees with me... Continued here ... http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=444804
  3. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Young? Is mid-thirties considered young these days? Perhaps so... I am well aware of credit market conditions. I am also aware that interest rates are coming down in the next month or two, and that the banks are all still offering 100% loans. So yes, there has been some tightening, but not...
  4. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    We're comparing population growth RATES. Not absolute increase in total population. You do understand what RATE means, right? Australia's population growth RATE is currently 60% higher than New Zealand's population growth RATE. If you take NZ's population growth rate of 1% and multiply it by 1.6...
  5. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    No. Australia's population growth rate is 60% higher than New Zealand's population growth rate. 1.6 is 60% higher than 1.0 16 is 60% higher than 10 160 is 60% higher than 100 etc. Think about it. The chart was posted in response to your suggestion that... 'Australia is unaffordable for...
  6. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    The problem with the Demographia survey, is that it only compares Australia with five other countries, yet claims to be a 'global' survey. It conveniently ignores all the countries in the world with much higher house prices than Australia. Here are some alternative studies... GlobalProperty...
  7. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Wrong. If Australia has 1000 people, and our population grows by 1.6% then we get 16 more people. If NZ has 1000 people, and their population grows by 1.0% then they get 10 more people. Australia's population growth rate is 60% higher than New Zealands. We get 60% more people per head of...
  8. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    No... you were talking about the house price vs income ratio...
  9. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Mining boom not affected by drought. It's different here.
  10. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Not much stronger? What... 60% is 'not much'? Australia has a housing shortage, whereas NZ has a surplus. Approx 2500 kiwis per month are permanently moving to Australia (double the rate of two years ago). NZ has had nothing like the terms of trade boost that the commodities boom has...
  11. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    First of all you said that high demand would force people to co-habit and then you said that when people co-habit it would become a renters market as demand drops. You can't have it both ways. If people are forced to co-habit, then it is not a renters market ... they would be only be doing it...
  12. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    There is heaps of info on the RBA site. If you want to find the location of the chart I posted above showing the 0.3% loans in arrears rate, just right click on the chart and view the location. No in all cases because the supply was able to meet the demand. In the case of Picassos and houses...
  13. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    And why are rental prices too high? Answer, demand is high. Anyway, you sidestepped my question below (in bold)... Why would people be co-habiting if there was less demand. Surely the fact that people are forced to co-habit is a symptom of MORE demand. When/where did I fail to acknowledge...
  14. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    www.rba.gov.au OK... well none of those things are happening in Australia. It's usually best to base your investment decisions on what is actually happening, not what may or may not happen sometime in the future. But if you want to sit around and wait for the Australian government to reduce...
  15. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Why would people be co-habiting if there was less demand. Surely the fact that people are forced to co-habit is a symptom of MORE demand. By the way, Australia is not London, or the USA, or Spain. Australia is Australia.
  16. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    As per RBA data above... houses are affordable for 99.7% of mortgage holders. Now you're just being silly. You are trying to tell me that when a person is priced out of their originally desired market, that their demand for accommodation just vanishes? They just say 'Oh well, I can't afford...
  17. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    According to statistics from the RBA, 99.7% of people CAN afford their mortgage repayments at present, and this should improve further as interest rates fall. So what makes you think houses are not affordable? It seems most people are affording them just fine. Rogue, sorry, but you really...
  18. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Rogue... you seem to think that there should be a correct price for houses and that prices should just revert to this correct level. There is no 'correct' price. The price is set by the market based on supply and demand. If an extra 1 million houses suddenly appeared in Sydney, house prices...
  19. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Downturn? Or crash? I thought you D&Gers were expecting a massive 40% crash? I think everyone agrees that we are currently in the midst of a downturn which will probably last for a couple of years. The latest ABS statistics show that house price growth has stalled. So now that interest rates...
  20. Shadow

    We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)

    Oh dear... a record 0.2% in NSW, and much lower in other states... what a disaster... this will only get worse as interest rates start to go through the roof... oh, wait, interest rates have peaked... so that means...
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