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The trend is of some, albeit limited, predictive value. One may countenance the idea that the trend of the past 30 years may potentially continue for a little bit longer. On the other hand it may not. I am betting it will, you are betting it will not. Do you remember who won our little bet on...

Can you? If prices today, in Sydney, were higher than the current average Sydney home price, would they be more likely or less likely to rise? And based on this, what effect has the previous 5 years of declining Sydney prices had on whether they are more likely or less likely to rise?

Now you're just trolling! :D

All other variables are NOT the same. It is those very 'variables' that matter, not the current nominal price. This is getting silly. Hey guess what, if all variables were the same, Hitler is just as likely to invade Poland today as he was in 1939. Wait - is that an air raid siren I can hear...

No, you've got this backwards as usual. I'm saying that the further prices have already fallen, the more likely they are to rise in the future. For example, prices in Sydney have fallen 15% in real terms over 5 years, while prices in the rest of Australia boomed during that period. That is (one...

Hi TF, Nobody can accurately extrapolate anything and I certainly don't claim to. My chart shows the current trend line based on all data currently available. Of course if we omit some of the available data as you suggest, then the trend line will change, but why not base it on all the...

True - I should try to learn from <the other forum> - how's this? Property crashed in Japan so the same will happen here tomorrow because we are just the same as America. After all the UK population growth rate of 0.4% didn't save them so the same will happen in Australia even though our...

Is there some point you would like to make? :rolleyes:

Because Sydney prices are currently 15% lower than their 2003 peak in real terms. Sydney prices have gone backwards for half a decade while the rest of Australia boomed. Sydney has one of the tightest rental markets, and the biggest gap between supply and underlying demand due to the very high...

I expect average house price growth to generally be a few percent above the rate of inflation (as measured by CPI, but also influenced by monetary inflation) over the long term, with booms and busts along the way of course. I expect over the next few years we will see Sydney prices rising at a...

No worries! You've done this to me often enough on <the other forum> - so right back at ya MB! :D In that case, I will assume that they don't exist! (since Steve was unable to point them out either...) :) Cheers, Shadow.

Steve Keen's credibility is in tatters... Max Carnage / Foundation / Pollyanna / Scary etc. is a major Keen fan. Why? Because Keen supports Max's view (and Edward Karan's view) that property prices will crash by 40%. Nobody ever explains how the 40% figure is derived - I guess it just sounds...

I agree - what is this fascination with Steve Keen? I really don't understand why he gets so much attention. What exactly is he famous for, apart from constantly making uber-bearish predictions which never eventuate...