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Steve Keen: Superannuation investors could fuel house price boom Even Steve Keen reckons a second boom may be coming. He has finally seen the light! :D Full article: http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,26032980-5013951,00.html

There's that word again. Eventually when? Will we still be alive?

1. Has it ever been at an all time high before? 2. Can we afford to pay the interest on the current debt? 3. Could we still afford to pay the interest if the debt doubled from here? (The answer is YES to all three questions by the way.)

I'm pretty sure the first time they mentioned a property bubble was in 2002 or 2003. I'll try to dig up the relevant article.

Pretty much spot on there Winston. That's exactly how it played out. :D

We need the guarantee because other countries have one. When other countries remove theirs, we no longer need ours. Simple. Nothing circular about it.

There is an element of speculation in everything. By not buying property you are speculating that the current positive fundamentals will change before you could gain a financial benefit. By buying property, the investor is speculating that those fundamentals will not change before they can...

Yes, things could change in the future. We agree on that point. We should always be on the lookout for a change in the fundamentals. Then we can adapt to deal with that change. Since it is very hard to predict what changes might occur in five or ten years time, isn't it best to base our...

Haha. Exactly Boz. You are coming round to my way of thinking. We must base our financial decisions on what is happening, not what we feel 'should happen for the good of society'. You and I can't really change society. We must play with the hand we are dealt. I agree, more expensive homes...

I have already said clearly that I don't expect a property crash in this cycle, and that we may have a property crash in the next cycle, but only if the fundamentals change. I'll keep an eye on those fundamentals. Today they are looking positive for property prices. Tomorrow, who knows. Prices...

Please explain how those factors are currently negatively impacting the property market? Shortage of property is of minor importance? Bank guarantee is of minor importance? (better tell YM, he thought it was pretty important).

They are rock solid. The bank guarantee is part of the fundamentals that make them so, along with the shortage, population growth, stimulus etc. Of course you could come along and tell me that the housing market would not be so strong if there was no population growth, no shortage, interest...

The governments of most comparable countries around the world implemented bank guarantees. Rudd was forced to follow, to prevent a capital flight from Australia. You should have expected Rudd to do this, as soon as the other countries did.

Australia is the only comparable country in the world to avoid recession. Doesn't seem to me like they got anything stupendously wrong. How would you have described their actions if we had ended up like UK, USA, Ireland or Spain?

Yeah, if you say so. :rolleyes: And you blame the spruikers for all that? Your question was "how much damage have the spruikers done by perpetuating the myth that property always goes up". I said "none, so far, because the spruikers have been proved right so far". Property prices have...

I wasn't very active on this forum at the time, and I still only have less than 900 posts on Somersoft. I was a lot more active on the other forum (3500 posts). But those posts were all deleted by the moderators when they turfed me out. :( This is the only one I can find on SS...

Yes, 2008 was a minor temporary blip in Australia's upward house price growth trajectory, which has now resumed course. By the way, I noticed you started a thread tonight on another forum where you basically agree with my prediction - that is, that Australia may experience a construction led...

Yes, currently 1.8% above their previous peak, but that includes the period during 2008 where prices fall by about 4%. In 2009 those falls have been more than wiped out. Currently, and throughout 2009, house prices have been beating inflation. Obviously they didn't beat inflation during the...

Eventually... Hmmm... national house prices are up 6% in 2009 so far, and will probably be up 9 or 10 percent by the end of the year. That is clearly beating inflation.

You laugh at people who make unfortunate financial decisions?