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Yes fair enough, I should have been more accurate - but you get my drift. A 20% fall is just going to take us back to where were we a few years ago, give or take a few percent.

House prices rose 20-30% in many places since the GFC. A fall of 20-30% would just take them back to where they were pre-GFC. I'm expecting national prices to be relatively flat over the course of this year, with moderate falls in Perth and Brisbane being offset by moderate gains in Sydney.

Well, a 20% fall would barely even reverse the last 18 months gains, so it would have to be a fair bit more than that to be considered a proper crash, so yes 30% seems reasonable. It's not going to happen though, not for at least another 4-5 years.