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Ah! This group, academic/Polly/Industry professional may be able to come to the party late and convince you they know what is happening in the short term, but I don't believe they know much at all. I use other sources.

My reading says that most of the "medium term" future is already carved in stone years before the events come to pass. For example the "sub-prime" debacle was known to anyone who cared to read. 'Twas years ago Buffett warned that "derivatives" were "weapons of mass wealth destruction". The fact...