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Short term; 1) difficult to see Aus avoid a recession (first in 20+ years). People are underestimating how much oil & gas and mining saved Australia in 2009-10 2) population growth, immigration levels will have to drop - unemployment now in a long term trend upwards and continues...

2015 for Australian weighted average, Sydney and Melb Somewhere over the last couple of years for other cities IMO real prices won't reach these respective peaks for 20 years for the weighted average - different cities may have slightly different timing

If I owned my own island and could issue my own currency - probably not too worried about what's going on with the price of anything...:D serious answer; My view on pricing and markets of pretty much anything 1) markets fundamentally aren't efficient and can become distorted in the short to...

OK fair enough - full disclosure on my motivations ;) I would likely benefit from a market fall in some way if I upgraded PPOR in the near future (which may be on the cards) Beyond ownership of PPOR, Investment in property is not something I'm looking at relative to other investments - and...

This is a significant factor. I would say a majority of market psychology at the moment is driven by 'how much can I service' by banks, individuals etc which means you can really pay a lot for an asset if you are confident the price will at worst stay flat (ie I can always sell for what I paid)...

Off the bottom yes, but they are still a long way off the real peak 10 years later. I don't think they'll get back to the real peak for at least another 10 years, maybe longer. This is the best I could dig up - I don't know how to resize images I think Aus 2015 = US 2006/07 (but probably not...

Collective households cannot take on any more debt and need to repair their balance sheets. In 08/09 Aus private credit peaked, but household debt kept growing - I think this will turn now as well. Even the RBA lowering rates will no longer provide any real economic stimulus. This is the...

As per OP - I'm saying the assumption that continued exponential real growth (like the last 50 years) will not hold - not even at 1%. I think next 20 years will be 0%... at best

Yep all the media and Govt do is talk about the red line and how its gone up a bit..... no one discusses the blue line because thats a private matter The blue line is just about the only thing that matters at this point!

For those that can spare half an hour, I strongly recommend watching the following; how the economic machine works by Ray Dalio I came across this a year ago and its the best explanation I have seen from a non doomsdayer about leverge in the economy and how the economy fundamentally works...

I agree to a point, markets within markets etc and an individual house will typically fair better than the median in a growing economy due to gentrification. But fundementally a rising tide lifts all boats and I think the tide is going through a fundamental shift in this sector. No...

Not waiting for anything (I'm neither long or short real estate), investments focussed elsewhere, and probably will continue to be so, but I've always followed the market with an economic interest

Call I'm willing to make in this environment. I think China will be a long term plus for Australian growth, but not enough to turn a deleveraging in the short/medium term. I think it is more than probable that the psychology towards the asset class in our market will change in the meantime...

At 2% cash rates there is a little room to move, but RBA appears to be targeting macro prudential factors against this causing increased liquidity in the housing sector (eg tageting investor loan interest rates). If they are successful in this, then I think that will determine the peak. There...

This assumes real house price growth is an exponential function @ 3.1%pa. I don't think it will turn out to be... to many fundamentals stacking up against the next 25+ years being like the last 50 years The only factor to change this IMO would be continued significant foreign investment...

I'm not a seasoned property investor (I have a PPOR without mortgage), but have followed the market with interest for a long time. Most of my 'investments' are in private businesses and cash at the moment.

Agree with the logic, but I actually do think this time/point in the cycle is different - the trends that are driving this are longer than a most professional careers... hence it takes the market by surprise when it happens

More or less yes... end of 50 year trend, but the last 35 years from 1980 were more pronounced (this is the key trend that cannot continue IMO) 3 key factors driving real price growth in the last 35 years in particular will no longer continue in my view. 1) Addition of another income to...

House price to incomes is not the same as real house prices, household income has grown for a number of reasons (historically) - I've added a chart to the OP which explains more clearly what I'm talking about. Aus houseprices across the board have increased for 20-25 years (in real terms) -...

I'll have to dig up the data, but I'm pretty sure real houses are much higher now than in 2002 and 2002 definitly wasn't any peak (real or nominal). The only reason for distinguishing is because there is a risk of inflationary break out... but the impact is the same, house price purchasing...