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*Cough* well it looks like I was wrong about the imminent Greek default. Up until then my belief was that Germany would be the first country to leave the Eurozone (it is the strong outer regions that can survive on their own that break away first, not the weak ones), but in the month or so...

The small amount is net over all exposures. The actual gross amount of Greek CDS out there is $70 billion. http://www.efxnews.com/story/10687/gross-greek-cds-volumes-counterparty-risk-worth-watching A lot of places are almost fully hedged - that is they bought almost as much Greek CDS as...

Wrote something but then got some new information that may change my opinion. Will try to digest and get back later.

Well, here's the first bank to take a hit: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/austria-faces-1-3-billion-bank-injection-after-isda-triggers-greek-cds.html Still, while I expect some chaos as above, the European banking system will generally survive. Everyone's been expecting a Greek...

It was clearly a default - if you wipe out 75% of the value of the bonds and are forced to use retroactive legislation (the CACs) to force unwilling bond holders to accept the loss, it is fairly obviously a credit event. The only real question was would the German government lean on the ISDA to...

As expected, Greece will introduce a retroactive collective action clause. http://www.minfin.gr/portal/en/resource/contentObject/id/7ad6442f-1777-4d02-80fb-91191c606664 Yup, they definitely gave a heads up to the ECB whose new bonds are not subject to the CAC. If private sector...

I actually think the Greeks are capable of it. There is a lot of talk about Greeks being lazy bums and Germans as hard working. But the thing is stats show Greeks are pretty hard workers. http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/01/10/greeks-and-italians-work-harder-than-americans/ They...

OK, so we throw more money at Greece and say "Don't worry about it". How has that worked so far? Also go down this route and you will guarantee the break-up of the euro. What's going to happen is that the Greeks will be happy for a while, and only the Greeks, but the euro-skeptic movements in...

Actually I don't think tax evasion is the only problem. Greeks don't pay tax because the government is corrupt and incompetent. Politicians use public service jobs to reward followers and build up feifdoms. From the articles I am reading, even now, the austerity measures are mainly falling on...

Hey, you can only get pissed off so many times at the stupidity of both the mobs and our "great" leaders before going, "Well at least I can find some humour in this" :) :) Oh god, the referendum would have been a great idea. I know why they cancelled it - because the great European leaders...

Of course it's hilarious. It's hilarious because everyone is throwing around solutions like bail-outs or defaults or devaluation without even taking a good look at the situation such as Greece's history. For example you have the German's throwing German style austerity measures at Greece...

The point is that the consensus is the Euro is the source of Greece's problems and that as soon as Greece gets out of the Euro it will be on its way to recovery. Single problem, single solution. In fact - quite a few economists are trying to cart around the default or devaluation option...

*Cough* Lehman's. It's not the size of the collapsing entity that matters so much as the interconnections. Still, I actually think the Greek default, if it occurs, will be relatively contained at first, at least in terms of the European banking system. The threat from the last war...

The hilarious thing is, even if Greece never joined the Eurozone, the chances of it getting into financial trouble would have been very high. See for example the long list of Greek defaults: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2011/09/28/debt-defaults-have-greek-history/ After its last...

There is a good possibility that Greece will default in the next week. In fact possibly Monday. Note that this is still highly speculative and there is no hard evidence for it. However, if I hadn't sold my stocks back in April I would be getting out. That's just me though. The danger sign...