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Yes, Boz good article. Several SS'ers get his newsletter. I've always found him to be highly rational and not pushing any ideological cart or self interest. His thoughts highlight one thing, that the private sector doesn't have the wealth to supply the liquidity required now. Why so? because...

seems they had an afternoon rally that left a 3.xx% dip..... but if I could short DJS, I'd do it in spades. most gains have been on cutting costs, not increasing sales. Silly business plan that cannot do well in a 1/3 of the business cycle............and they're relying on overseas designers...

caught the last 30 odd mins. No embarassing guffs or pauses by Sarah. She was complimentary towards Biden throughout for his patriotism. She played the folksy Mom card a bit, handled foreign affairs and other questions better than the guffs replayed by left media recently. Talked about having...

for anyone interested, Palin and Biden are nutting it out until 1230pm on ABC tv

thx Michael, a meaty article, esp the bits about lmi insurers and impact on lo doc.

QandA are discussing the bail out right now. Am amazed at the lack of understanding by all, and point scoring by the left.................actually, no, I am not amazed

HE, the act of prioritizing the mortgage over all other household expenditure, is what will threaten the economy and jobs moreso. People are already tightening on discretionary exp. With much more expensive houses in Oz and higher rates than US, Oz is more sensitive to: a slowing economy lower...

thx BC and Craig. I am doing my best to self educate. As I've said before, I reckon if we all do a bit of reading and research, we all end up better informed. Sure we'll all say stuff often that is dribble, but hopefully like a guided missile, others will get us back on target. So don't take my...

I've messed around with fx trials before and I felt I'd have to have a better handle on economics, global finance, and trade relations. I found tech analysis a lot more unreliable due to volatility I couldn't come to grips with. I came to the conclusion it would be safer doing momentum trades...

This is the concept I had in mind. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_simulation_games and this is what I was thinking of.....but tailored for Australia.....and how about a dumbed down intro version....with less variables.... http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/main.htm

Yeah Boz, I was looking at the US car sales this morning. and it prompted me to check Aussie's. Agree with your points about comparing US and Aus property/share market split. My view is we are better putting more capital into companies that employ on a sustainable basis (not property), and...

Just found this piece which I think offers excellent insight into the vulnerability of Aussie major banks to a downturn in property prices. http://www.the-diplomat.com/article.aspx?aeid=8724 excerpt below Don't put your house on it Jeremy Thompson 27-Aug-2008 "If property assets on banks’...

Boz, have a look at the steepness of the drop in car sales.....12% decline in 6 mths... Here's building approvals, down about 10.5% over last 8 mths.

I agree the goal should be to avoid wild swings in credit availability so as to smooth out economic cycles. I also think the RBA and govt allowed a global credit bubble cause an asset bubble in Australia. And this is going to cause a lot of real pain to many Australians for years to come. This...

They did bad in many respects imho, before and after. That's why I don't trust them or govt. If asset prices deflate seriously, do you think the RBA isn't partially responsible for not recognising there was an credit bubble feeding an asset price bubble???

Check out www.shadowstats.com. The site reveals how successive US govts have manipulated cpi for a couple of decades to dilute it down. Why? because wage rises are based on it, gdp is based on it. and these things determine very much what a currecny is worth and whether foreigners will buy govt...

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And at least if we all try to stay better informed, we'll be able to weigh Russell Crowe's solution better. :rolleyes: chalk another point up for Aussies being considered the white trash of Asia.

I don't think everyone is trying to concretely predict the future BC....moreso try to understand what is happening, the associated risks, and modify our plans and expectations. That's a pretty sensible thing to do imho. Sure it creates a lot of banter and uninformed opinion, but I think the...

I was listening to some analysts on Radio National this morning who made the point no one knows what Aussie majors exposure is to sub prime fallout. They aren't that open about it, and they probably cannot measure it accurately because the exposure is subject to further deterioration in US...