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I am not ruling out rate rises. Glenn Stevens' rhetoric, especially that 3% is an emergency level, underscores that. Nevertheless, with projected negative real gdp growth and property prices at today's levels, I doubt the average Aussie cash rate over the next 3 years will be >=5.5%. The...

when do you see macro forces getting back to 'this time last year'?

for the last few weeks, emerging markets have led the bond market. this is a trend that has been commented on a lot recently and expected to continue.

tnx = 10 year us treasury note bsesn = bombay sensex index

I'm taking my lead on rates from the Chinese, Indian, and Brazilian stock markets.....as is the bond market it seems.

I went through similar thoughts Peter.....but before Lehman's blew up. I missed the 'capital preservation' the FHB vendor bonus would have delivered, but I felt pre GFC, the fundamentals would not support further strong cg, so liquidated to move capial where it was more in demand. The gains I...

A variety of opinion is good Michael. As long as we can all keep backing it rationally with reasonable data/stats. The sheep were bleating for years that Roubini and Schiller were idiots. Let's consider the decision the RBA has to take. What happens if they raise rates, say, twice this...

Hey and we did that by working - 6,600,000 less seasonally adjusted hours in July cf June. - 45,000,000 less this july cf last july. So how does that effect $s circulating in the economy?

Indeed....from the above link "The Australian Bureau of Statistics formerly produced a composite leading index for Australia but discontinued the index in 2003 citing the poor performance of the leading index in recent years and the difficulty of completely overhauling the index"

You might find this article interesting. What Economic Indicators Have Led Australian GDP Over the Past Decade? Though it is a large assumption that preceding 10 year causal factors will retain the same influence over the next 10 years.

Peter, it would have been a good article if it was written in March. :)

Yeah he was one of those guys who the madding crowd thought spread fear doubt and uncertainty. How fat, lazy, wrong, and duped the crowd was, became clear enough in time. I suppose some would prefer everyone line up behind the biggest black duck, and quack and waddle in unison. At the end of...

I think it helps to keep in mind what a corner the RBA and govt are painting themselves into..... If variables go above 8%pa, then I'd say the majority who took the fhog bonus bait will be up the creek. That would confirm Rudd as economically incompetent, and kill him in an election. Now, we...

I suppose it comes down to relative sources of bank capital for fixed loans Peter. Banks traditionally raised most funds as variable short term deposits, and these would carry more rate risk for sure into the future. However, I was under the impression a higher % of fixed loan capital was...

I don't work in banking but my understanding of fixed rate loans is that the funds lent attract a fixed rate of interest over the period of the loan. What rates might do in 6-24 mths doesn't dictate the fixed rate should be higher now. Today's fixed rates are determined by what appetite for risk...

Interestingly, China is comfortable with its dramatic increase in leverage being used to inflate property and equity prices. They appreciate rising property prices make people feel wealthier which encourages household consumption, which drives the domestic economy. Unfortunately, as Australia...

The most important part of Glenn Stevens talk was typically left to last. It's a sign of his hypocrisy, arrogance, and intellectual sloth, that he didn't see the trouble brewing before now, as prices escalated to 8x median income when he was arguing it was all kosher. The pace of global...

Gotliebsen is a bit of a bear, but I reckon his car dealer mate is calling it right. The June spike is not only the usual seasonal effect, but additional demand brought forward. Incidentally, a well connected friend was saying the car bonus was funded by tax revenue on additional iron ore and...

Rework $111 a week over 2 years, not one.

Well, let's have a look at FHBs.... Av loan taken out recently across Aust by FHBs = 283k Let's presume most went with a 25year P&I Weekly $ repayments at 5% 382 6% 421 up 39 7% 462 up 80 pre tax dollars, at a marginal tax rate of 30% 5% $545 6% up 55 7% up 114 So a 2% rate rise will...