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well, it is all fear and greed. just imagine how much less volatility there'd be if the stock markets only traded once a quarter. RAR is risk adjusted return, and more precisely, risk adjusted return on capital at risk where, expected return = P(win)*size of win - P(loss)*size of loss) It...

I sold IV, not out of panic, but risk management.....like a stop loss. What many don't appreciate is that even if an asset's price hasn't moved, the risk in holding it may have, and this effects risk adjusted reward. Every disciplined serious investor measures in RAR, not blind net profit...

Works for Brisbane too. Just don't buy too close to any govt quango affordable housing initiative, as they are unlikely to be as generous when rezoning nearby true private sector initiatives.

I had an interesting lunch today with a developer I've known for decades who works Brissie northern outskirts. He himself is a straight arrow, but has a birds eye view of what is unfolding around the traps. He blew me away with some of the stuff he told me - two tier marketeering alive and...

nice lunch HE. I often wonder if there was an endless supply of money to lend, how high Aussie banks would drive DSRs. Cross generational debt has to be more on the cards.

what will cause deflation in Australia Boz :) I don't see it as big a risk as foreign inflation, and, like you, I actually don't think foreign inflation in developed economies will be an issue for some time. Deflation in Australia would require a withdrawal of investment in Australia, i.e...

Banks don't think all debt is equal. Rather, they consider risk adjusted rewards. IMO, they are pulling back from high LVR lending because they believe the risk of property values coming down is higher now, then before. Some argue otherwise, saying the banks are finding less capital...

well said Boz. well, Australian banks are paying relatively low interest. they then lend it to us at substantially inflated interest. the big external risk to Australian property is inflation in the US, Europe, and Japan. When that happens, foreign rates will rise, and so will the returns...

I am also open to Keen's view. I somehow don't think Aus property could drop 40% while supply is so tight, but as I am looking now, I am emotionally prepared for a 20-25% drop at some stage in the next 10 years. Ultimately, property prices are a function of credit cost and wages, despite...