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Further toe, look at what happened to the AUD overnight, and check the spread between gold in AUD (proxy for safety) versus platinum in USD (proxy for global economic growth) over the last 12mths. It is one of my hedges for Aussie property. It's a rough proxy for the VIX, but smoother and with...

They certainly are and many are saying that HAS to become the new normal for serviceability reasons. However, that necessity is going to collide with our growing dependence on foreign credit. Those creditors won't be taking into consideration so much our domestic stability, but rather global...

interesting chart toe. thx. But after contemplating it for a bit, I considered it thus: The difference between real income and income after repayments represents change in loan repayments, above cpi. In 2004, real income is about 60,000, after repayments 45,000. In 2008, 70,000 and 52,000...

true, but I can make money when it is going up or down. I can use stop losses to limit the downside. I can short it for a week and simultaneously long it for a year. I can leverage the same ratio as property. I can do an inverse algo pair trade with gold and palladium. It's a nice break from...

Now seriously SF, bugger whether property is going to be more in 20 years.....how about the gold price in AUD being more in 2 weeks???

nah nah Sunfish.....they really will be worth more......why gee, even by this Christmas, they'll be up 10%......... right across Awhhstrahlia..... you just wait and see..... wait and see I say........The REIA told me so, the HIA told me so...Jehweh told me so......you can take that to the...

Our recent purchase obviously needs growth and tax credits to offset the lower yield. I've given enough hints about that growth. If the growth weakens, we will most likely proceed with a small or large value add, or we may flick it. If you're sweet on 2.5% yields JIT, I'll send you a PM before...

This investment isn't representative of the market JIT. Aust. Property Monitors place it as metro Brisbane's hottest performing suburb, a statistical outlier. I am confused about your viewpoint JIT. Above you are an extreme permabull full of bravado that there's always a way to outplay...

JIT, I think most interpret the charts for what they are, long time series 'trendlines' of passive investment. Anyone not wet behind the ears understands the smoothing, and its purpose in elaborating risk and reward. I don't expect the next 10 years to be the same as the last, nor the same risk...

Pete, I think you want to build an extra measure of caution into your calcs from now. Regarding rent escalation, do the best due diligence you can. - Ask multiple PMs around the areas you are interested in.... - Check official stats. Qld's RTA has good freely available databases. You can check...

I'm using fjficm's example...from his last post. 2.5% would be quite the norm in South Yarra.

Agree....though i thought the boom ended late 2003. Then it took off again late 04. Then I thought it stopped late 07. Each time my attention turned to yield plays rather than growth. I've spent hundreds of hours reading through fundamentals to try and better understand what has driven prices...

I'm with Top Gear in thinking the hydrogen powered electric car is the future..... My view on health care is that outcomes haven't improved with technology. The overwhelming majority of health issues are lifestyle related, and our lifestyles have taken a definitive turn for the worse in...

The point of how much fcf we have left to service debt is something I have tried to clarify for some time. I explored household saving ratio as a proxy for it. In the last 15 years, it has a rough negative correlation with property growth. However, it is a rough relationship indeed...

Considering an ever higher % of our gdp is owned by foreigners, GNI will be more telling re Australian household debt serviceability, and more particularly, GNI per capita.

OK, let's sprinkle some objectivity on the RBA's golden child's serving: - Why is housing credit growth slowing when rates are still below long term average? - How does blanket 'housing credit growth' discriminate whether house sale volume or price is its driver. Nice of Chris to ignore these...

Standard fair from "no bubble" Chris Joye today. I like his RBA quote "In May the RBA’s head of financial system stability, Luci Ellis, claimed in a major speech on Australia’s housing market that “we do not have a credit-fuelled speculative boom on our hands.”" No Luci, sales are...

Do the property bulls want to have a crack at explaining lower volumes on lower margins for Australian discretionaries? Retailers who play the high debt to equity game in this environment, like Clive Peeters, get the inevitable reality check when they ask their creditor to roll debt. NAB's...

That's a nice insight to note rates having to move down a bit more with every excessive credit fueled cycle. It is interesting the RBA felt it wasn't necessary to take our rates lower, but the govt saw the need to borrow from future tax revenue to stimulate the economy. This is maybe a sign of...

Lot's of ways to read it. In view of a recession, PI'ers are more confident rents will go up than stock owners are confident earnings will not fall. and no need to mention the obvious lack of liquidity in trading houses.