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Culturally, Japan has NEVER had an investor culture. They're workers, dependent on defined benefit pensions, identify themselves as companymen first and live and die with their companies. I have a friend in his 20s, an elite salaryman from Tokyo University, who really had a moral crisis over...

If HG has read anything about the Japanese bust (or understands anything about Japanese mindset), he would understand that it's unlikely we'll have the same sort of bust. Just quoting one-liners about how Japan has been in recession for 15 years (true) doesn't mean it'll happen in Australia or...

Try shorting. Or puts.

Normally, decreasing supply will result in higher prices. Looking at the rental situation, it would appear that we are undersupplied in terms of dwellings. However, in the case of property, does this necessarily mean prices will go up? My opinion is not necessarily, because: 1) there is...

I agree. As investors especially, since rent increases. However, this sort of environment is usually accompanied by a recession. If you don't have a job, it doesn't matter how low property prices are. So while stagnant markets are actually better to buy in than a boom, the fact is many people...

There will also be periods when rents go up while interest goes down. I think we're going into one of those periods. Falling interest rates don't necessarily stimulate property prices if there is a recession. Inflation is a wild card, and oil and food prices can go crazy without any underlying...

I'm pretty sure you and I have very different investing styles, so I don't think comparables can be made. I aim for a fair amount of gearing with stable assets investing for the long term. You obviously invest in other things. I also think we have very different views on what property investment...

I see. You've made great gains in 2 years during a massive bull market. Well, mortal that I am I'll just have to stick to my gradual buying and dollar cost averaging. Me, I have no property industry experience so I'll just go for my usual median priced properties buy and hold for the long term...

Only for ordinary people like me. The extraordinary may be able to do it in one. :) Or to put it another way: I managed to build a decent block of assets in one cycle. It's enough for me to be comfortable. However, to achieve true financial independence, buy the mansion by the water and...

I believe the truth will lie somewhere in between. Basically, a rental shortage (which will get worse, so higher rents) AND a fall in prices. Not necessarily a precipitious one, just a couple of % a year. But if you compare a 5% a year fall with (general) expecatations of 7-10% gains a year...

Realistic? Perhaps. I bought my first IP at 22. Certainly isn't impossible. And how do you think the bear market will affect your shares? Alex

So dfer, how do you plan on profiting from the coming crash and recession? You're definitely not young enough to have experienced the last one (neither am I). Alex

Undersupply doesn't necessarily mean higher prices as people can rent instead (pushing up rents but decreasing buying demand). Further, just because there is demand doesn't mean buyers will offer ever higher prices. Higher rates and tightening lending standards will mean people cannot offer as...

Property is a long term thing. You'll never tip the bottom or the top. Just buy within your means (cashflow-wise) and hold for the long term. Maybe the market won't head north for 5 years, maybe 10. But when it does the market will jump so fast you can't catch it (most booms are like that)...

I think the market will fall. How much I don't know. The value we see (in the form of company profits and relatively low PE ratios) is a bit of an illusion, because it assumes that future profits will be at least at this level. If the subprime stuff gets worse, there is a risk of a general...