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I think from those figures you wouldn't expect any house price drop, but it might be a lagging indicator as it takes time to settle a home sale and get the loan. I was expecting a lower housing credit figure

I don't know exactly how those business loans are measured in the RBA spreadsheet (I am just a trader). I know that the big business like big mining company gets their money more on the market and through deals with clients and through capital injections. This was also pointed out by the RBA...

I don't have alla the exact data handy but you can get a lot of information with some simple matematic operatio. For example In australia there are around 9 mil homes with the average price of 450k it comes up to around 4 tril$, so a 12% home price increase for last year put around extra 400...

property investor lending increased around 3 BIL$ to 327.6 bil$, for the last few months the increase was a couple of bil$ a month. M3 and other money number looks in better shape despite the increase in rba interest rate, offshore borrowing also is stabilising after the big rise in january. In...

I think those economist that think it is business as usual are not correct. Even RBA downplaying the business credit market in saying that it is a choice from big company to borrow less, not lack of availability of credit for business. To me it all sucks, we'll see next year...

Time to update your chart shadow... Things are same as last month with both broad money and M3 dropping and business lending down and home lending up. M1 and currency are quite stable and would keep any price increase contained in the short term. link

Shadow is a bit late with his chart... In the meantime here is the release of September financial aggregate. The main point is the contraction of private credit (consumers + businesses) by -0.2%, that was expected at +0.2%. Interesting the month/month drop in M3, last time it happened was...

here is the latest about inflation (from 10.30 this morning). at present debt is not getting inflated away with these inflation numbers

but still you've got to remember they are 5 times the population of australia in a land size smaller then victoria, that is not overanalising is it? why don't the Japanese dreams of a home with garden and drive property prices up following that dream? (I guess that is what was in fashion to say...

when do you think Japan had a recession before the end of 80's? was very much like australia now and most people thought they were going to rule the world, decoupling from everyone else, running massive gdp increases every year forever etc. the data say Japan total debt is decreasing and soon...

Wouldn't bet on that, When Japan dropped the rates in early 90's they probably also thought it was for dire circumstances, well they are still sit at zero interest rates and Japan credit is still not expanding. USA also is sitting at zero and credit is still expanding comparing to gdp, but it...

I agree with you shadow, no rate increase in sight. Today also building approval and retail sales number were released. Only retail sales were better then expected and that is not good news even if gives temporary boost in gdp it will get our trade deficit worse and reducing investment (more...

thanks shadow for the chart. my opinion is the rising personal aggregate is because of increasing confidence that pushed up a bit retail sales (and reduced slightly savings). not sure about business credit as last week ABS had a 3.3% rising in business investment for the second quarter (private...

Yes, you are right Shadow, home price would fare well during the winter as a consequence. The data surprised me and I was expecting a worse number. report from bloomberg so, first home buyer number are still strong, it doesn't quite match the real estate industry new home sales down 5.7% for...

I think prices in real term take out the compounded effect of inflation, infact if you overaly the building cost in real term they are linear and not exponential. But the chart wouldn't consider the compounded effect of rental return and copounded effect of renovation/maintenence.

mmmh, I think you might be right, and my english knowledge is not my best bit. anyhow, (as english is not my first language) my knowledge of greed come from the famous statement: “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful” - Warren Buffett So, I thought wouldn't be...

Gee Shadow! how many people do you think there are on this forum investing in property because they want to make money and not for the good of society or whatever...I trade because I want to make money, I don't want to hide that. At the end of the day it is all a balance of greed and fear, if...

...still good to see shadow put aside his greed and consider that the real estate industry interests will NOT necessary lead to home price increases...:rolleyes:

If you look at the data in particular the finance commitments increase is mainly for new homes It is definetly a good news for renters that would see less competition in the rental market and more unluckily to see undersupply of homes in the future. May be also shadow is right and it is a good...