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  1. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    you can get some data from this link (I know you really love data...;) ) By the way, iceland fish export is very high of around 60% and around 20% is alluminium (as I believe they have plenty of cheap green energy), interesting to see that their financial chrisis brought a huge trade surplus...
  2. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    good report that one from Tim Colebatch, I have to remember his name as you don't get many good opinionist on the australian press. He is right in pointing out those risks that, as I have said several times, are much higher in the medium/long term then people think (and even politicians...
  3. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    Very good post, I like it. About banks exposure it is hard to know exactly what it is for each bank, but the overall picture is quite clear and the overall market exposure in australia is well over 1 tril$ (the 4 major banks would have more then 1 tril$ combined). This when the market value of...
  4. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    I think the bottom line is the people that make the country. We know what we got now, but who knows what we'll get with those extra 10 mil immigrant in the next 20 years? may be they'll not be corruption resistent. Argentina was probably laughing about comparing them to Australia 100 years ago...
  5. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    With Swanny in charge everything is possible...;)
  6. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    as I said this explain the present situation, but there are country like Russia and Argentina that had plenty of resources and they still run into trouble. but at the present is all good and could last many years in the future
  7. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    the discretionary income growth is a good way to explain why the economy is in equilibrium now and why gdp has been growing strong for long time. But discretionary income growth is not a good way to measure anything with reliability as it is a very unreliable and instable way of measuring...
  8. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    Wouldn't be a problem if debt would grow at same pace as increase income but it is at exponential growth when measured against gdp (which is the gross domestic product and measure all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year). here is the chart (it is a bit...
  9. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    there is a lot of data and numbers on this matter, none can argue that home prices/wages in australia has never been higher then now, also none can argue mortgage debt/gdp of around 100% has never been higher before. On the other hand many argue that now most of families can service morgages...
  10. boz

    Biggest Interest rate rise in a decade forecast.

    we still consider the average mortgage these days is over 270k$ (never seen it before, even when measured against wages and gdp), average new mortgage is over 350k$. Probably, last time there was 2% rate rise the average mortgage wasn't even 100k, I don't believe there will be panic but I...
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