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Totally agree Peter. In these polls, the incumbent PM is almost always the preferred PM, even if their party is behind on 2PP vote. That the Opposition leader is now preferred PM suggests the Coalition will win, and win big.

Or former Labor politicians. From the Age today. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/bracks-may-plunge-into-roxon-seat-20130203-2dsor.html

With the preference system, it doesn't matter if the Katter Party take some conservative vote, because it will flow back to the LNP anyway. The only isue is if KAP outvote the LNP in a particular seat. They may do in a couple of seats, but I don't think it will be a major concern to the LNP.

Great point Hoffy. I was amazed when I heard Iemma was a potential candidate. They should be running a million miles from anyone with the stench of NSW Labor on them. It'll only take four Liberal seat gains to change government. They could pick those up in Western Sydney alone.

Hi Peter, FWIW, I'd say equal parts 2, 3 and 4, perhaps with a bit of No. 1 thrown in. Just a bit.

I doubt this will impact the election, as the legal system moves at a glacial pace, but an interesting federal politics development none the less. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-31/craig-thomson-arrested/4493722?WT.svl=news0