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"When Shadow finds himself wrong, he just changes the goal posts." This was a general statament about your many predictions, not specific to those I mention in the post.

Shadow is already wrong. It's not hard to find posts where he was claiming victory on the construction boom in 2009, over two years before his new claim that the boom kicked off in Q1 2012... http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=605286&postcount=75 He has already predicted a crash for...

I was wrong on timing, I admitted it, have no problems admitting it. Shadow just keeps squirming to avoid it.

Where did you mention Sydney in the post linked? :confused: http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=441496#post441496 Predicted in 2008 for 2010/2011, that's 2-3 years forward. Recent construction activity indicates some strong growth in construction being seen now, 2-3 years late, i.e...

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/07/dwelling-completions-show-lack-of-rebalancing/ Sure is a slow start to the construction boom!

Hi Shadow, the only mention that I can see of crash in that article is where David says it would be very damaging if a housing strike caused one... so (as per usual) you are being disingenuous with your portrayal of the views expressed on MB (which says more about you than MB). Furthermore...

Apart from brief mention in an article or two a couple of years ago, the only talk of recession RISK that I recall has been recently (ahead of the MSM latching onto the same) and with good reason. I don't recall their main property contributor (Leith Van Onselen) saying "property crash" (got...

The chart was in response to this post where you mention the importance of the longer term trend: It's ok Shadow, you've already admitted you got this prediction wrong. Only takes your long run average to 87% wrong. You have plenty of years to redeem yourself I'm sure. You seem to like...

Gold is in a down trend over the medium term (2 years), uptrend over the longer term (13 years). Is this thread about Gold?

NSW in red. Imagine if you adjusted this for pop growth: Yeah... booming :rolleyes: Chart courtesy: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/dwelling-approvals-fall-on-units/ (I added trendline).

"In March 2013, total seasonally adjusted building approvals in New South Wales (-10.9 per cent)" That's a robust "construction boom" taking place in NSW! And 1.5 years too late even if it becomes one :cool:

/Removes tin foil hat. Seems I got the thread wrong :cool: You admit you were wrong here: http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1003585&postcount=145 But now saying you were right? It's not a boom until it's a boom. Bottom line, based on approvals, we are back at around a long...

Funny how the post where you admitted you were wrong appears to have been removed from the thread when it was unlocked. How convenient. Recovery from construction crash ≠ construction boom.

Haha, how about some perspectice with longer chart? Classic selective charting, well done.

Well things are certainly "booming", there are construction companies in NSW kabooming left right and centre... don't think this is the type of boom Shadow meant though...

Will be interesting to see if the revised FHOG for NSW (will only be available for new purchases) manages to stem the crash (not boom) we've been seeing in housing construction (see attached NSW data from ABS released today).

The difference is turk I'm not so arrogant as to continue claiming I was right about something when it's clearly not the case. If we don't have a negative GDP print in either 1st or 2nd quarter this year (which leads into a recession) then I will be happy to admit I was wrong on the...

You're aware this thread was started almost 4 years ago, yes?

Pretty impressive result. Will we finally see a bounce out of the great NSW construction crash of 2011... ? Given the size of the change (and looking at other similar outlier months) I can't help but wonder if the large move is the result of a large development company having a group of new...

Missed key words "try and". Not suggesting they do, I was suggesting that you shouldn't take their analysis at face value.