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  1. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    It amazes me that the B-Train driver continues to leave the resort in order to mutter unintelligible gibberish at the side of road policeman. Doesn't he have something better to be doing? Piña coladas to be sipping? Laps to be swimming? Bikini clad tail to be chasing?
  2. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Thanks, as I expected.
  3. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    So Dazz, nice work with the funny analogy, but you can't even link a single deal that's out there?
  4. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Should have read "are playing out". Edited above post. I don't think the price falls are over.
  5. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    January 2010 I said this: So I think prices are playing out pretty close to expected. Melbourne bucked trend in 2010 and continued to boom and I think Melbourne will now pay the price by falling a lot harder than other capitals over the next couple of years. As I pointed out at the start of...
  6. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    That was classic Dazz. But the way I see it the road to wealth is traveled by many vehicles. I see myself not as the cop, but simply a different vehicle on the road. I have skin in the game and I'm traveling a fair bit faster than those who recently decided to take the Holden Barina (resi...
  7. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    lol pieman I only talk with a few friends about my thoughts on things financial (those who have shown an interest). Although I might have a gloomy outlook on the global economy (e.g. returning to growth and avoiding the issues bought on by the debt bubble), I am consistently looking for...
  8. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Fair enough. As I conceded in the "recession thread" there is definitely a two speed economy going on. And the poor eastern states data hasn't had as large an effect on the economy as a whole as I would have expected (so do agree with what you are saying and some of the recent criticisms aimed...
  9. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    To be honest Aaron, this thread wasn't even about making a prediction, simply highlighting outstanding risks. turk tried to twist it into a prediction thread when he linked to it from another thread the other day (before this thread was necro'd). That said many of the risks I highlighted in the...
  10. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Touché :) Although I'm really only against buying (property) at today's prices/yields (in general, of course there will always be those out there who can spin a good deal regardless of the market). No issues with those who have a large enough equity buffer and can ride out the storm.
  11. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    What's your point quoting that line? Still looking for ways to prove me wrong? Seems like your only goal. Most of my buying was well lower than today's prices.
  12. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Glad to hear it. If you've seen a Gold and Silver chart for the past couple of years you would know they've done pretty well also :D http://www.bullionbaron.com/2010/09/australias-2009-first-home-buyer-bubble.html Never really got as far as I wanted to with it. I'm not the academic type. I...
  13. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Authority? Last time I checked there was no license required to write an article or report and distribute it online... Why would one need to be a student or academic to write on a subject they are well versed on?
  14. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    I'm flattered that you would think that aussierogue, but I work in IT and have never been to Uni. The thread title was Mish's not mine and came from the article linked. In all fairness I didn't kick things off track and my offtopic posts have been mainly in repsonse to another. This is...
  15. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Not everything in life is about making money, personally I find the subject of housing in Australia quite interesting. People write movie reviews, etc, doesn't mean that doing so is going to benefit them in any other way than getting their opinion heard. That said as I don't currently own...
  16. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    oh you have to invoice tenants and collect rent? my investments are increasing in value without the need to do anything, so I have some free time on my hands ;). of course the original subject matter would be a touchy one for you, I certainly don't expect Australian commercial property to escape...
  17. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Actually it's subject material completely internal to Australia, covering the subject of 2009s FHB bubble (in numbers, leverage, not necessarily referring to home prices), will repeat and expand on some of the discussion points I raised in this thread...
  18. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    I am part way writing a report for an Australian property problem and I'll be sure to post it here once completed, maybe that will be one you can enjoy. It won't be 190 pages though sorry. I forgot that we are protected from global financial crisis. Our $1 trillion in foreign owed debt will...
  19. hobo-jo

    Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

    Anyone still claiming that this is just a business as usual downturn/recession is kidding themselves. Still standing by the fact we are in the eye of the storm and there is a lot more pain to come. Everyday I see risks that could bring down the global financial system, risk of sovereign...
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