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Funny how those that are negative about short term property prices are always given these ultra bearish labels, like "expecting Armageddon", "doomsdayers" or "housing bears". Personally I would consider myself simply a "realist". Mind you it's the same on the "bear" forums, only 12-18 months ago...

Stumbled across this today which pretty much confirms exactly what I have been saying (loans correlated with prices). So if you don't trust a random user with a keen interest in the subject, maybe you will believe the RBA ;)...

Not sure what you mean by the other side of the fence. If you've been expecting prices to drop for some years then you have also been wrong for a few years, like many of the bears on "other" sites, some of whom have now broken down and purchased property (at what I expect will be the peak for...

Unfortunately my Excel spreadsheet skills are a little amateur, I couldn't work out how to get both lines on the same graph, but here is the last 8 years of Owner Occupation loans (number of) vs the quarterly housing index (both ABS stats, I had to average the monthly OO stats to get quarterly...

There is certainly a lot more factors than these two (loans/prices), but fewer loans = fewer sales and in an environment where sellers need to get rid of property then it can most definitely lead to lower prices. You say coincidence...shall I take the ABS data further back than a couple of...

For those not away if you google the title "Housing nears the precipice" and follow that link you can get to the full article (without registering). I agree with Steve, we have seen/are seeing the turning point. I don't believe we will see the 40% price fall that he has predicted, but am sure...

This should provide a link to the spreadsheet with figures. Peak to trough: Sydney - 103.1 (Dec 2007) - 95.6 (March 2009) - 7.3% fall Melbourne - 143.6 (March 2008) - 136.3 (March 2009) - 5.1% fall Brisbane - 146.1 (June 2008) - 138 (Dec 2008) - 5.5% fall Keep in mind that ABS data is...

ABS loans data is up to April, whereas that index is only showing to March. If we were to put RPData capital growth over the top of the same chart we would see that capital growth is already following the trend if we include April (e.g. see bottom right graph here). ABS data won't show the...