Search results

Define “long term” and define “inflation”. Are we talking only during the period post 1945? When you say inflation, are we talking government produced figures, monetary inflation, CPI? If CPI are we talking a measurement that has not been altered over the entire period you are measuring property...

Lending figures say otherwise: http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/rental-houses-pushing-boom-20100713-109eh.html Gold has outperformed property the last decade and I think it will continue to do so for at least the next 5 years...10 years? Hard to say, should have a better idea...

The Somersoft top 10 dumbest quotes board just got a new entry :D Insinuating that there is no risk with property? Directly saying that you need no skill to invest in property? Perhaps you can preach this tripe to any Perth Investors who bought at the peak and now have negative equity and...

keithj’s example was over a 110 year period, he provided the example that previously the property was on the fringe and now is a highly sought after inner suburb. I’m not denying that such a house could increase in value relative to other properties further out from the city. What sort of...

I'm not sure that we will find much common ground with our thoughts so don't have much to add, however I find it pretty funny that property bulls have often used medians, averages, etc as a metric to measure how successful property has been over the last decade and now when it seems it won't...

In 10 years time I do not believe prices will be as high a multiple of single/household income as they are today (e.g. in real terms I think it's likely they will be lower in price than today). In nominal terms I think a doubling of median price in any capital city (using Q1 2010 as a starting...

I agree this would be a reasonable target to factor into a long term plan from here, but the important thing to remember like Graemsay said, make sure you can hold it for long enough to realise this target. While over 25 years you might get a doubling of prices from here it might be with a...

I had an article linked this morning which solidifies my belief that continued doubling of house prices will not be possible in the near term. I believe this quote sums up the argument I have been making in this thread, but in a much more succinct manner: The article goes onto describe...

Okay so your claiming for 120 years we have doubled our house prices every 10 years? I can't say I would have the data to prove or disprove this, but I think it's unlikely we saw this sort of growth for the 80 years you are including prior to 1970...for example Melbourne median house price was...

You mentioned a dozen "booms" prior to the current one that did not rely on easy credit and then point to a graph that has perhaps 5 periods that could be considered booms (1890, 1950s , late 1970s, late 1980s, 1999-current, 2 of which (1890 & current) could be attributed to easy credit based on...

Some things never change, there will always be asset bubbles and there will always be the deflation of that bubble, really the only question remains is how that occurs. Above is a graph showing the 1890 bubble and also graphs at this link show it...

I have seen this chart before. I believe the multiple is currently 4.4 and has risen from a low in the 1990's of approximately 2.7. This is a 63% increase in the cost of housing against disposable HOUSEHOLD income. Not that different to the rise against a single income which went from 5x to 8x...

Sorry wylie, could have been more clear here, but it was a rushed post, I mean in comparison to wage growth it has climbed faster in the last 10 years than in decades prior as is visualised in the chart on the last page.

Regarding dual incomes, you will find that household income is not that much higher than the median single wage. The chart would not be as extreme as vs the single wage, but it still wouldn't show a healthy reflection on house prices. Further to this the majority of price growth has occurred...

Strong growth over a short period of time does not necessarily equate to a bubble (en example being Gold's rise over the last 10 years, it is strong growth over a short period, but comparable to other assets & wages I would say it is relatively fairly priced where it is today on a historical...

Look at the chart posted in the thread. You're telling me that population growth is the reason for the price movement for the last 10 years? There was higher growth in each decade from 1960 to 1990, yet somehow with lower population growth we manage a higher increase in housing against wages...

Is that not the point of the chart? e.g. that in 1970 someone on an average wage could have purchased a median property, but today that wouldn't be possible?

$4200 is the wage from 1970, not the house price

Chart is meaningless without context. Plot a line showing income growth on the same graph and you will see where the problem started.