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Yep, that's pretty much what the last 38 pages are... but isn't that the point of the "Property Market Economics" sub-forum (using facts/anecdotes to form an opinion to share)? :)

The assumption was because I couldn't be bothered putting the data together when I know mortgage growth has been over 4% per annum for the last few years and GDP has only recently just peaked around the same level. You are welcome to use the links above to prove whatever point you were trying to...

A) The 'Lending and Credit Aggregates - D2' spreadsheet on the RBA page I linked has mortgage data going back to 1990. B) The downloads tab on the ABS page I linked has GDP data going back even further. C) I didn't extrapolate anything.

Who is extrapolating 1 years figures back 3 years? What are you talking about? I posted a chart showing that our mortgage debt to GDP is high relative to other countries, you imply things have changed since 2009 (due steadily rising GDP, stagnating housing finance), but you are wrong (it's...

Although growth in the mortgage market is at 35 years lows it is still growing faster than GDP, so I assume the mortgage debt to GDP ratio in Australia is higher now than in the chart above. If you are interested you can check the figures for yourself. RBA Lending and Credit Aggregates...

Given CBA's massive exposure to residential property loans and the likelihood that a recession could put them under severe pressure, you don't think they'd have any reason to present a particular bias in order to maintain confidence (if only as a facade to keep people buying their shares)? re...

Quote is from the age article linked.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/is-housing-recovery-just-a-pipe-dream-20121118-29k61.html#ixzz2CcsQnjzX Further analysis from Leith at Macro Business: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/11/can-housing-construction-fill-the-void/

So in your opinion RBA will be able to avoid an Australian recession by cutting rates? That's not what I said. You are putting words in my mouth. We were talking about stimulus packages, which you said China was engaging in. When I questioned you on the stimulus measures, all you could come...

With regards to the Australian economy? I don't think the demand (or prices) for our resources can be sustained at levels seen in the last 5 years. IMO the end of the commodity boom will have pretty far reaching implications for the Australian economy. Lower house prices. Higher...

These quotes from the original post/thread (May 2011): By RBA's account commodity prices peaked in late 2011 (around 5 months later than I expected): My guess on the timing of a technical recession was wrong, but that doesn't mean my expectations for one are misguided. The...

Good piece here from Alan Kohler: Continues at: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Dutch-disease-GFC-economy-SME-NAB-commodities-mini-pd20121114-ZZQR7?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot

We only have to go back 15-20 years to observe very significant rise in prices compared to rent/gdp/incomes. Yes low rates & easier credit have been an enabler for higher levels of credit growth and in turn higher prices but these are variables which can reverse. They also don't make property...

"It's different this time" just doesn't cut it for me. If prices were reasonable then people would be buying, yet we have mortgage growth at the lowest it's been in some 35 years, new home sales at/near record lows as far as it goes back, etc. That Brisbane data does look low in the chart...

Block sizes have shrunk and risen in price much more substantially than the cost to of building. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/11/bigger-houses-smaller-blocks/ http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/08/the-land-bubble/

So based on your expectations of a "new paradigm" for house/land prices, what ratio is now the new normal vs rents/gdp/income? What's a reasonable yield for a property investor to consider when buying a residential property? Or can we just throw out any rental measurements and rely on ever...

Not a question of where, but what. Aussie houses/land are overpriced vs rents/income/gdp on a historical basis when we compare with times past.

Interesting watch: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-18/national-press-club-andrew-liveris/4321174 Dow Chemical Company CEO Andrew Liveris talks about the fragile state Australia's economy is in and what we can do to improve our situation.

I will continue to post links and information that support my opinion, you are welcome to add the same for your own.

Dylan Grice Predicts An Australian Recession In 2013 Video: http://www.businessinsider.com/dylan-grice-australia-2012-10#ixzz29Qm72Li2