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What specifically have I said about property that you don't agree with? I was a buyer of Gold up to around AUD$1550 in 2011 (but most bought at much lower prices, sub AUD$1100). In hindsight it would have been great to sell all at the top and buy back my position today, but I'm not interested...

Not upset, not sure where you get that idea. Simply providing context for your poorly thought out examples. I regularly read about the mistakes of those made here and take it onboard (and learn from my own).

Presuming you outperformed my portfolio prior to the last 12 months is not fact. Presuming you will match or outperform my portfolio in the future is not fact. Presuming we have the same investment time frame left in life is not fact. redwing, I wouldn't bother, Deltaberry is clearly so...

So is that what you intend to do with the $300k? Buy Gold? You might lose your $300k. You said yourself you can't provide an example of something that will make money over the next 12 months, so what reason do we have to believe that your last 12 months haven't been blind luck...

I've more than doubled my net worth over the last few years, but lost money in the last 12 months. The very suggestion that making money over x period makes someone's opinion more valid than anthers is preposterous (especially on a property forum where I suspect the majority of investors have...

Which is different to a majority of your posts or Deltaberry's inference that having made money in X time frame is critical to having a view worth considering, how exactly?

Not necessarily mutually exclusive. :confused:

Who cares about the last 12 months alone if there is a longer term strategy in place? Do you think those holding property with a long term outlook are concerned with a 1-2 year drop in price short term? You said yourself in another thread that the gains you achieved in the last 12 months were...

There are way too many environmental conditions to predict an exact outcome as inflation is not the only influence. House prices (capital city medians) rose strongly in the 1970s inflation, but fell in real terms (didn't rise as strongly as inflation).

If all the liquidity that central banks are pumping into the market eventually comes home to roost in consumer prices and drives inflation through the roof then the RBA may not be able to keep rates low (at least not long term).

Deltaberry, if I recall right you said you purchased in the area last year, prior to the "boom". Given the dismal yields the Melbourne market presents (at a city level, not saying individual deals can't achieve better than the average), I assume you purchased with the intent to speculate on...

Carlton 44 Grattan St $1,515,000: http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/Melbourne.pdf This one sold for $1.3m on the weekend too: http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/House/VIC/Carlton/?adid=2010450872 Not really sure what Deltaberry's point is though, I don't...

It is not a necessity to buy while the ability to rent is available. The basis of the article in the OP is that property prices are at risk. Buying a property can be high risk, it depends on the circumstances of the buyer. If you whacked down a 50% deposit then it likely wouldn't be a high...

That's what I thought (Q2/3), but wasn't sure how long it takes for sales to translate into actual construction. HIA data supports an increase in new home sales (Victoria) e.g. "In the month of April 2013 detached house sales increased by 9.1 per cent in Victoria".

Interesting given it's at odds with Q1 data: http://www.theage.com.au/business/construction-hit-by-1-billion-slump-20130529-2nbx4.html#ixzz2UiZZZdAf When would you expect the "boom" you are seeing to show in construction activity? e.g. Q2/Q3?

Just to offset the boom boom talk, this one's for you Aaron :D http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/mining-investment-has-peaked/ Also this report linked by commenter on that article worth a read...

Most capitals are on upward trajectory if measured from mid 2012 (Perth & Sydney leading the charge): http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/weekly-rp-data-house-price-update-13/ Upward trend is weakening, but perhaps further rate cuts will be able to delay roll over... However prices...

Deltaberry, I don't paint everyone as a permabull, if I've painted you as one then please link to where I said or implied so. I am interested in longer term cycles when positive macro conditions align and risk of recession are not lingering. I highly doubt the bounce we've seen in Melbourne will...

This thread and one other (Sydney units) are the first two I've started in 6 months. The 'property market economics' seems like a logical subforum for this discussion: "The state of the property market, influences of the economy on the property market and of the property market on the economy"...

This thread is about the macro environment and the risks it poses to Australian property, what's the wrong audience? :confused: Are you suggesting that in the 'property market economics' sub forum only discussion around positive influences for property are relevant? Forget the risks? Only point...