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  1. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    In this thread we have those that value profit in life over all else, others think toys, others lifes experiences, others personal growth and some enjoy debate / discussion. There is no need to feel sorry for anyone, if anything that just shows arrogance and lack of understanding that most...
  2. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Have answered several times. Do a search. I am not "accusing" anyone of anything, simply engaging in discussion which is the purpose of such a forum.
  3. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    It's not profit to me or to anyone. Don't know why the conversation always has to be switched to Gold. All we are really talking about here is leverage. There is plenty of leverage available in the Gold market for those inclined. Sure there's some benefits when borrowing against...
  4. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    lol don't be silly, simply borrowing more money (up to the purchase price) is not locking in a profit, it's just unlocking access to borrow against the equity. Join us back in reality friend.
  5. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    I think you are confusing debt with equity. Just because you manage to draw down a larger loan against the property while it's valued higher than purchase price doesn't make those funds a profit. Also not sure how you came to the $120k figure... 80% of $200k is $160k.
  6. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Assuming it doesn't go back down to $600k. Not a profit until it's sold.
  7. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Some interesting long term stock charts in this article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-07/guest-post-bubble-so-big-we-cant-even-see-it
  8. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Yep, has maintained a consistent ratio (cycling up and down within a range) in Australia over 100+ years: http://www.bullionbaron.com/2012/06/aud-gold-price-exceeds-weekly-aussie.html The indices may go that far back, but doesn't mean you had easy price exposure without swapping in and out of...
  9. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    I don't think Gold is an effective inflation hedge (CPI) over the short term, but history shows it tends to cycle in value back to very similar levels over the long term (will buy same quality/quantity of goods). Because that's when oracle said the first index fund became available (so post...
  10. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    So you don't think it's speculation, but happy to bet? It's an idiom I know, but IMO your post only solidifies that you are speculating on stocks (to some degree). Don't disagree (although I think there is a case to be made that a very small percentage of a portfolio in Gold as insurance is...
  11. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Isn't buying a stock index fund and hoping there is a repeat of historical performance also speculation?
  12. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Willair, Gold is experiencing a correction that some expect marks the end of the bull market, I don't think that is the case. While nothing is guaranteed, I think Gold outperforming stocks has some way to go... See this chart...
  13. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Well you're entitled to your opinion. I don't agree with some of the above, but pointless arguing.
  14. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Right, so change the time frame a decade or two here or there and you can get very different outcomes. It's worth noting the goal of the PP is not necessarily the best return, but rather a diversified portfolio that is stable (minimised draw downs) and "safe"...
  15. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    So pre 1975 anyone trying to track a stock index would have run into the same problems you pointed out for the PP (e.g. potential tax events). Looks like there have been PP funds around for almost as long (this ones inception in 1982)...
  16. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    How many companies from 1802 are still around today? Sure, buy the index... but when did that option become available (couple of decades ago perhaps)? Good thought (as was the oracle's pointing out the portfolio flaw). I think there are also funds that track the PP performance also (but...
  17. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    No doubt. http://www.stableinvesting.com/p/long-term-performance.html
  18. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    I agree there is a degree of faith/belief to Gold retaining it's value, just the same as there is for those who hold fiat money in their wallets or bank accounts. Gold's lack of practical utility (and high stock to flow ratio) is what makes it such a good monetary asset. You can't separate...
  19. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    IMO one of the main reasons the USDX has stabilised (trading in smaller range) is a reduction in the financial instability that we saw over late 2008 - 2011. The financial instability (and policy reaction to it) was a primary driver of the Gold market over that period. However, after several...
  20. hobo-jo

    Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow

    Only because the recent fall in gold price is often thrown back in my face as if it somehow invalidates any discussion point I make :rolleyes: Allocation will ultimately depend on the goals of the investor, but I will point out the Permanent Portfolio has performed well over the long term and...
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