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Listen to the market. It's dictated by the best brains that manage trillions of $$ so they have the most to win/lose. The market says no rise in rates for 18 months... and a cut is far more likely. I'm happy to watch this graph change every week - I'm 90%+ sure that it will give me a 6yr...

Wouldn't you rather have a 6yr fixed rate under 5% ? If so, then stick with variable for a year & then fix at <5% for 5 yrs this time next year. I'd expect we'll get a bit of notice that fixed rates are going up.