Search results

Interestingly, the RBA Shadow Board thinks rates should rise within 6 months. It seems to think that the economy hasn't weakened much in the last few months, so the current setting is appropriate. This is the direct opposite of what the yield curve is telling us. But as the Shadow Board is...

To get back on topic... As we both know swap rates change every minute - they go up or down all the time. However, we're mostly property investors - we think in terms of returns after a decade or so. Can you put your statements in context ? Maybe provide a 3yr chart to show how big this...

Agree, I have a lot of respect for his views. Although its his Westpac Weekly Bulletin is reproduced by BusSpec - he isn't an employee of theirs.

Based on the current economic situation the RBA is likely to cut by 0.25% some time in the next 10 months. However, based on the last cut not being passed on in full (by most) & the fact that the big 4 banks earnings growth has stalled it is highly unlikely that all of it will be passed on to...

I agree entirely. Rate cutting probably isn't over, APRA will put a lid on house prices while the RBA is free to stimulate business/investment. When tabloid journalism raises it's head here I think it's right to robustly debate it. There are some here who regard SS as a haven from the...

Exactly - yesterday was ~80% chance. Today the market expects a ~100% chance of a single cut to 1.75% at some time in the next 12 months. So based on the currently available information, do you stand by your call of a 1.0% cash rate ? or can we agree that it's garbage ?

Excellent - reputable sources are critical - perhaps it could have been mentioned in your 1st post ? Hmmmm, not really. Here's todays & yesterdays - they are almost identical.

Do you think the facts changed between your yield curve & rates dropping ? When the facts change the market (quite rightly) changes its mind - what do you do ? It changed its mind yesterday when CAPEX came in 2% short of what was forecast. Do you honestly believe the markets know with 100%...

That's great. However, there is a time to think with the trend, and also a time to be a contrarian. Keen was a contrarian for a loooong time - he may be right eventually, but for contrarians timing is everything. You misunderstand. The market is not ignoring them, they are putting them in...

I'm not sure what your point is ? You appear to be standing by your claim that a 1% rate cut is imminent based on a story by a single journalist who is barely out of Uni. And ignoring the multi trillion dollar futures market shown in the chart above. Below are 2 charts showing the 3yr...

The multi trillion dollar bond market begs to differ with your sources. This was the yield curve yesterday morning..... .....and yesterday arvo was only slightly changed. However, there is ~80% possibility of a 0.25% cut by this time next year. Perhaps you need to improve your...

Linkedin says he finished Uni in 2007. Have a skim of his other articles - he's one of the most -ve writers they have. I've never seen a balanced article from him - however he does appeal to the D&G demographic. Maybe when he's experienced at least one complete cycles he may gain some respect.