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  1. K

    Word of caution for the newbies.

    It's balance that I respect. Permanent D&G (a la some GHPCers) is a waste of bandwidth. Buffet & Bill Gross are balanced IMO. All the Maudlin & Puplava I ever heard/read was D&G (& I did persist with them) - if that's changed then I'll add them back to my reading list. In the same way I...
  2. K

    Word of caution for the newbies.

    My feeling is that loans won't be rationed (except by higher IRs & lower LVRs & better risk management). I'd expect Oz banks will source more capital locally (though higher deposit rates & bond issues). My question still is - there's lots of $$$ out there looking for a (low risk ?) return -...
  3. K

    Word of caution for the newbies.

    GR touched on a point - the funders will want (or even must) to continue to lend (albeit at a higher IR and or lower LVR). Would they prefer to lend to US or Eurozone or Oz ? Would they prefer to lend against res IP or business or commercial IP ?
  4. K

    Word of caution for the newbies.

    Sorry to go on YM.... but every generation of prospective OOs has thought the same as you are now - 'they're to expensive, I can rent better for less'. And then some nesting instinct kicks in or the Landlord increases the rent once to often (or kicks them out:eek:), and they think 'bugger it...
  5. K

    Word of caution for the newbies.

    You're the economist - you tell us. Simple maths tells me - CPI (which includes basics) at rising at 3%, wages up at 4%, assuming basics are 70-80% of disposable income then that 20-30% is rising at around 6%pa. I'm sure the RBA has a definition tho. Not all the extra wealth needs to be...
  6. K

    Word of caution for the newbies.

    9) Disposable income rising faster than wages. The graph below shows disposable income increasing at an average of 6%pa for the last 15 years. This is above the average wages increase (of 4%pa) and also above CPI (@3%pa for the last 15 years). It roughly corresponds with increasing...
  7. K

    Word of caution for the newbies.

    You forgot to add the bit about over a reasonable timeframe. The timeframe most are considering is less than 50 years. Your chessboard example (I didn't watch the youtube link) would be over a 64 decade time period, so is irrelevant. Using property as an example - CBD property doubled until...
  8. K

    Word of caution for the newbies.

    Great post thread Thanks for the clean up Joanna I agree the world can look like it's coming to an end..... however, it looks like it's coming to an end every 10-20 years or so...... some are too young or naive or easily influenced to understand..... some don't even try to understand...
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