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Yes - timing is everything. I broke my remaining fixed rate middle of last week - CBA, $350K fixed for another 13 months @ 7.74%, cost only $200.

Sure, but them you've got a whole new set of calcs to work out - likelihood of insurance cpy paying out, credit rating of said insurance cpy, and then credibility of credit rating agencies. The point I'm making is that some risks a so small & hard to evaluate that they are irrelevant regardless...

Didn't reach the risk threshold for 99% of the audience. ... and it shouldn't. If they'd listened in 2004, they'd have missed 50% gains in ASX, or 100% gains in Perth IP. In hindsight, you were right (eventually). But adapting only when the risks reach a certain threshold is IMO a better...

Possibly from a purely statistical POV, but from a practical POV how do you calculate the probability of those black swan events? and how do you calculate the payoff ? As an example of a black swan, you gunna calculate the probability of rising sea levels inundating your beach house, then...

Of course not. The point of (serious) question I asked was - 1 in 100 yr events (such as those you listed below) are such insignificant factors in the Expectancy equation as to be irrelevant. The problem is that if we took all the possible extreme events into account before investing then...

Any ideas about What Black Swans to take into account ? and also How to take them into account ?

That's what I did last yr with an Adelaide Bank Lo-Doc - saved me $7K ish. I drew down my margin loan to pay off all but $2K, then asked for a payout figure (which was coupla hundred). Then refinanced with another lender and put the $$ back into the margin account. From their POV the idea...