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I hold the the market in higher regard than the posters here, and certainly higher than most economists. The market has been giving us higher lows (over the next few months) & higher highs (in 12-18 months). That trend has been in place for 3 months. ATM the market doesn't support the view...

May 20th Update An update on rate expectations.... From the first post in this thread back in mid April, it's easy to see the shape & level of the yield curves for Feb & April. Here's todays SFE yield curve... There are a few significant points to note between the earlier...

Unlikely - that would be v. bad publicity. NAB is calling for Debate on how interest rates are set. I'd say that's code for 'We won't be passing on much of the anticipated RBA cuts' NAB & ANZ are seen as the weaker of the big4 - they're both suggesting that they are having to pay bigger...

Yup. What are the chances of hyper inflation within 5 years & interest rates to match ? Probably small, but not zero. Could you withstand 17% IRs ? or even the 10% we had 12 months ago ? By fixing I'm 100% certain I'll be able to withstand it, and it's likely that the insurance will...

They're about to rise by ~0.4% ... if this is a false bottom do you think they'll fall by more than 0.4% next time ? What's the likelihood of any falls at all ? The way I see it is that any further falls are a) unlikely & b) likely to be small..... OTOH, further rises appear to be the more...

OK..... that's enough for me to start fixing. Another point I touched on in the original post... there is v. little competition left, so the big 4 are free to increase their margins on standard variable rates over & above the RBA cash rate increases. Volume growth looks like slowing, so...

Yes. I hope it will be a small move initially ( < 0.2%).... and I hope it won't be my bank that raises first. ATM the longer I can benefit from a low variable rate the better. It's a risk, but I rather pay an extra 0.2% for the term and benefit from low IRs at the start & an extra few months...

Yes. I'd probably do 10 or 15 yrs for PPOR - I don't expect to ever need to borrow less than that & rates are below the long term variable average. If (big if) rates ever got back to 17%+, I'd be in a v. strong position & if rates fell below my fixed rate for periods of that 15yrs, I wouldn't...

Hi Andrew, My thoughts on fixing now...... Firstly looking backwards for some perspective.... From the RBAs chart pack 3 yr bonds (brown line) formed a bottom in Feb and are rising slowly...... obviously we don't yet know if it's the bottom. ...and 3yr home loan fixed rates are a...