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What happens in the very long term may be an interesting theoretical debate, but it has zero relevance to my investing strategy. Obviously the answer is that something must change. Population growth will stop at some point - probably decreed by govt policy. And then house price growth above...

Potential is the key word. Upturns don't always turn into bubbles. The RBA appears to be keeping their eye on the ball - they are likely to ensure we don't have excessive growth. And I agree that forecasting the timing of anything that is sentiment based is impossible. Most D&Gers will be...

I posted previously about how a FHB buying an affordable house can upgrade to a significantly better house after 10 yrs and reproduce the relevant part below.....(Original post is here) It clearly shows how the $ difference is funded by a 50+% deposit from previous PPOR sale and increased...

Not quite sure I understand.... can you elaborate ? Do some flow analysis on the lifecycle of a family unit - starting as a FHB, then an upgrader, and finally downsizer. And then add in 2% population growth pa, and add the extra cheap houses they'll need. And consider that some 'expensive'...

I'll bet that back in the 50's, 60's, etc, that no-one could guess that the next decade would bring about such significant changes. And I'll bet that v. few today can envisage with any degree of certainty what changes will give us more disposable income for the next decade. Needless to say...

Sure, just the same as a median priced house today is unaffordable to a median wage earner. It's fortunate that we're building extra affordable houses all the time. Every single one of our currently existing houses was affordable when it was built. Every single extra house that will be...

I just did a search in this thread for that word - 14 occurences - 10 of them by you :p. I agree, it's part of a normal cycle. The RBA is making sure it stays normal, and doesn't develop into one of those unmentionable things that either deflate slowly (in real terms like Merrylands did) or go pop.

I see it as - the sooner it goes up, the lower the eventual peak will have to be. We have low unemployment, high consumer & business confidence, huge commodity price increases, increasing house price, etc. These will all affect the economy in the future. The RBA must get to a neutral level...