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  1. K

    Which way is the economy heading?

    You're absolutely right, none of it is 100% perfect. However, if you have anything better I'm sure you would have mentioned it. When the multi $T markets of stocks, bonds, futures, etc take notice of the ABS, bank sponsored stats et al then so do I. The alternative you're putting forward...
  2. K

    Which way is the economy heading?

    The ABS acknowledges its data & published stats have a margin for error - they publish that margin - in the case of the labour stats they publish their 95% confidence range. That is the nature of a sample and not a full census. Re the how/what/who is collected - the ABS publishes their...
  3. K

    Which way is the economy heading?

    Not necessarily. If what I was hearing was out of step with reputable sources, I would question if I was suffering from some sort of bias. No - 65% said Flat, only 22% said D&G.
  4. K

    Which way is the economy heading?

    Of course. The stats produced by the ABS are just a sample, they don't have the time to talk to every person in Oz every month. However, they do use the dozens of PhDs to ascertain that they are 95% confident of their results based on a subset of the population. And they do revise their figures...
  5. K

    Which way is the economy heading?

    I would agree with sanj - who cares what industry? The ABS' sampling methodology doesn't publish industry stats, however the ANZ job ads series (which is a fairly good proxy) suggests...
  6. K

    Which way is the economy heading?

    You're absolutely right.... The ABS reckons it might be far more than only 100K jobs created in Aug - they are 95% sure the figure is somewhere between 63,400 and 178,600. Even the lower bound is a v. positive result. And back in 1991 (shortly after the recession) well over 100,000 were...
  7. K

    Which way is the economy heading?

    If there RBA were to vote, they'd be choosing 'Going to be as flat as anything' if their minutes are anything to go by. A few points.... Reasonable prospects that growth in major trading partners would pick up in 2014 Possible household consumption could outpace income thanks to house...
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