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Economy, % rates, and all of the above. But I see plain old cash flow as the underlying driver - up or down. If a household has dual income supporting a mortgage, and 1 looses their job - its only a matter of time before the financial burden leads to default (obviously based on LVR, etc)...

And confusion reigns, look at the posts here. And with confusion, lack of confidence. I don't think we appreciate the breadth of small business. Each GP is a small business, the gvt provides bulk billing that feeds into the economy and keeps the wheels of cash flowing. Now a lot of Drs are...