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And since when did a resource industry spokesman become an expert in the mechanics of the property cycle? Everyone is a genius in a bull market.

Given that the last boom was the longest (and biggest if I am not mistaken) I would not be suprised if the downturn was just as long. I still think its way too early - although the supply shortage in the Eastern States cant go on for too much longer. Its an interesting point - there are large...

In my opinion house prices became detached from fundamentals a long time ago. Thats why I would not be suprised at a small fall in prices (under 5%) but an extended flat period is the most likely scenario. For all those expecting the economy to support prices - you may want to study the US and...

A follow-up to my previous post (after reading the REIWA news archives): The great housing shortage: http://www.reiwa.com.au/Art/Art-Public-View.cfm?PageUUID=a6303a0ef1afn$DE$BD$-13-Aug-2006-04:45:18:285&Id=7320 So large shifts in supply can occur quickly. Coupled with this: Big drop in WA...

Kind of... I would have a little more faith if they came from an institution who has a vested interest in hawking the good times but its certainly the best local source of statistics. I really dont have an arguement againt such low numbers. It seems like nothing bad can really happen while...

Interesting point about listings yadreamin - I would love to find a state-wide statistic to track market inventory. Has anyone found such a stat? Only thing I ever found is the ABS stats, which are a little too broad to detect market states in a reasonable timeframe. Some bloggers in the US are...

As they say - no one rings a bell at the top. By definition, it always looks the best right at the peak of the cycle. I'm quite content to let this one pass - taking in some valuable observations along the way. It will be interesting to see which one of my theories turns out to fit the reality...

Gav, you forgot to mention that volatility works both in the up and down directions...

Kp does have a point - I'm sure there were people saying its all going to end in 2000 over east - and then you missed out on 3 years of growth. The trick is finding out when things get _really_ stupid rather than slightly irrational.

It seriously wouldnt suprise me if prices did grow to 500k in the near term - markets can and will go higher and harder than anyone could expect. I'm not in the game of predicting when it will end. I'm asking you to look at things from a long-term perspective rather than the experiences of the...

And you think once Perth's median hits Sydney it will remain that way forever? You are implying a price disparity trend that has exisited since statistics are available will suddenly break based on one mining boom. You are going to need stronger arguments that that to convince me. * Fastest...

400k. Golly gosh! Im planning on making the move to London next year - its becoming even more tempting to flog the PPOR... hope the hangover from this party doesnt last too long. I did read an article in the Sat (or Sunday) paper about Hegneys invester survey - apparently only 70% of...

They last much longer than the conserative investors ever imagined, and much shorter than the agressive ones could fathom. Being a conservative, I should probably cheer up a little :)

There is an article in the West today about falling mortgage applications (I'm relying on 4 hour old info here, so I might be wrong). Quick version is that mortgage applications have fallen more than expected taking into account normal seasonal variation. I'm watching the press with a keen eye...

I suspect there is always a seasonal aspect to the property market - we should expect less demand during the winter months. Personally I am still hearing (and seeing) properties being purchased on their first home open and with multiple bids.

I hope your not looking to use that for market research...

Guys, Its great news to hear of everyone making money, but its better to think of these things in a risk vs reward way rather than simply looking at the reward aspect. Your rewards are great because you are taking on a significant amount of risk buying towards the peak of a boom. If you are...

I went for a drive around some CDB construction sites while the missus was shopping on the weekend (great way to waste time btw), and every single site had a huge "Help Wanted:" with a list of every single trade I could think off. More fuel for the fire eh? For all the big-building nerds on...

If half that backlog is from investors, then its not exactly sustainable. Wouldnt they jump ship soon as the good times start coming to an end? And personally I think our esteemed planning minister wouldnt know how to make money out of a gold mine right now (along with the rest of the pollies)...

Some more 'madness' - my better half just got a 20k payrise by jumping ship to a big mining co in the CDB. Funny thing though, she is a secretary and is earning more than most of the university educated software engineers in my office :eek: If thats the kind of money they pay secretaries, I...