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  1. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    I kept my money in the bank and made 4 percent and spent zero time worrying about the stock market, currency or what colour tie benanke is wearing at his latest press conference! There are some cheap shares around with price to earning ratios of about 7 after some big drops.
  2. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    I think you mean almost double the inflation rate ( the Rba rate is a meaningless number) retail rates are about 5 percent. House price growth is less or equal to inflation. Interesting also to see the GDP numbers out annual growth if 2.6 percent in the midst if a mining investment "boom"...
  3. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    lol - auctiion clearance rates? really? its 74% of 284 reported auctions - how is that representative of the market? how many houses are actually listed for sale in Melbourne at the moment? Auction clearance rates are a convenient statistic for property spruikers like APM. I am really sure...
  4. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    Everyone in the industry knows its slowing down engineers are beig made redundant in consultancies - that's a sure sign that the front end of capex is winding down - if investment is increasing or staying the same you don't let go of designers etc
  5. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    Building new houses I'm happy with it only served to devalue the existing stock! And I'm not convinced - you don't pay engineers on six figure salaried to build houses and they won't pay six figure salaries for general labourers either - it's not as simple as dropping interest rates and...
  6. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    So: Construction Down 2% in the quarter and capex down over 4% despite forecasts of a 0.5% rise - so tell me how you expect the housing market do be non responsive to this given that the trend is expected to continue, which means more people out of work and probably less skilled migration (or...
  7. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    then the ROE isnt 15% - its more like 3.75%.
  8. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    where do you think you are going to get an interest rate of 2%? the RBA cash rate would need to be practically zero for retail rates to fall to that level. also - 80% equity?? most people are lucky to have 20%!
  9. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    some food for thought... ''Why would you want to do that? I don't understand that. The notion that you could continue to expand and increase and grow in an infinite way on a planet which is finite, is a kind of lunacy. You can see how mad that is by the expression that you can't believe that...
  10. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    You're ignoring owner buyers and only considering the impact if low interest rates on investment purchasers and in those circumstances your return of 15 - 20 percent (not sure where you are getting this) ignores any slow down in the economy which would have lead to the lower interest rate...
  11. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    They're all bulls and they're complacent
  12. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    Great news if people have a job to service the loan or there is enough migration to stimulate demand
  13. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    It's also called a wage price spiral
  14. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    The Government isnt really the problem, its the cost (although their IR policy might be part of the problem). A big part of the cost are salaries, salaries for Australian engineers and labourers on thes eprojects are almost double what they are in the US and elsewhere. I will give you an...
  15. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    Look out below! http://m.smh.com.au/business/end-of-boom-in-commodities-20130522-2k19x.html It's the investment phase that had brought increased migration of skilled workers, booming salaries and everything goes with it - if it falls if a cliff then it should take house prices with it.
  16. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    The only reason equities are on a run is because the fed and Japan are printing their way out of one mess and into a worse one
  17. tambourineman

    Property risk highest in a long time

    Que the "it's different here" response. They will prattle on about alleged supply constraints and high demand and even the face of a slow down property will jut keep going up. Rubbish. Perth is a great example - it's chockers with pommies on 457s and FIFo bogans, once we see the mining...
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