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I reckon it is bloody easier to buy now than it was in most times in the past hearing stories from the folks etc. This is the problem though. I am probably one of very few people who has had a family rented for the last 10 odd years lived with the folks while I studied first year moved out after...

You could look up Niall Ferguson on you tube too. He has a few of his presentations uploaded there. One that appears to be on the money now when 24 months ago many were predicting deflation he said he did not expect governments to be that responsible / restrained these days and in stead we were...

Unfortunately economic cycles move in time frames longer than a persons working life. It is precisely this experience bias using your own lifes experience to predict what will happen next that causes economic collapse and poor government response to it. It certainly gives us the boom bust in...

No I will complain about systems if I think they are stupid, unjust or inefficient. Often in economics their is a short term pay off for long term pain and this seems to be the way both central banks and government not just in Australia but everywhere seem to be heading. Rather than investing in...

Sure we could end up with deflation and because building homes seems to track inflation quite steadily I imagine it would also track deflation in the same way. Maybe even be ahead of the curve because building activity is the first to suffer in a recession, indeed it is often building activity...

A house in inflation adjusted and composition adjusted terms costs around about what it cost 10, 20 and 30 years ago. The building game is not rigged or has a regulated supply of bricks. buildign is not where the problem is HBS. it is in and around land development. Specifically in the...

Actually good point at the risk of going one more time around the circle; it is a given IMO higher utilisation rates would be achieved through higher costs as well and I believe this is the trend we are sarting to see now with our shortage of homes. They are expensive so we are bunching up again...

Yes it will happen if conditions change. If conditions don't change then nor will the utilisation rate. The market is not broken it is responding to easy credit, government regulation in housing supply and government taxation. Basically it is responding to a deregulation of finance and a more...

Umm, no what do you mean? If we had a depression we would not have lots of extra homes? I think it is a rock solid argument quite the opposite of a straw man. As I said conditions in between would cause a result somewhere in between. It is your argument I am trying to put more succinctly...

OK lets look at your supply demand fundamentals. You have a housing market at equilibrium over a long period. The government introduces an urban consolidation plan in 1995 and releases about half the blocks of greenfield they had over the previous 20 years YoY. It then introduces a...

At its heart your argument is, if conditions change then their could be more supply then required. I agree completely. Look at pictures of the great depression. People on the streets, people in shanty towns etc. If we had a depression then house prices would almost certainly be in a tail spin...