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That is an interesting question. Over 50 years I would agree with you. Over 1000 years I would not. Gold is the ultimate safety play over very long periods of time. Say you were a carthaginian and with your bag of gold liked the look of a patch of land with sea views and good growing...

ahhh yes but what exactly has made that land worth what it is? Not the land itself. Again the land is infinite (well technically its not like gold is technically finite as well) but the infratructure, amenity etc is only what people have built there. I could show you a photo of a 1million...

I agree with what you say here completely. Sorry I have a habit of trying to build a case for things and not get to the point till later in the post. Both gold and land are prone to bubbles because the large existing stock will often get valued at a level which has no bearings on underlying...

I agree with where you are heading. This is the industry cycle, prices rise, investment in capacity occurs etc prices fall again. Gold is not as much like Iron ore or coal because it is held as stock / wealth. You see with iron ore it is all about flow. their is very little stock of iron...