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round 2 goes to treasuries ... in the process the sudden "demand" for US treasuries surges the USD higher against other currencies.. commodities drop.

dont be mate .. we live in a capitalist society, and rightly or wrongly, these are the rules.. i didnt make them, i just play by them.. im very excited too ... :)

Back in Jan 08, i posted the above, and suggested Q4 2007 should be close to negative, and similarly Q1 for 2008.. Last night US govt released GDP numbers.. they revised 2007 Q4 GDP number from about 1% to -0.2% ... hahaha ..nice one.. Recession in Aus 09 ... in my mind not much doubt about...

atm major battle is commodities vs treasuries .. round 1 goes to commodities..

Hi NR and BC, My reference to the polympics (political games) was regarding the future impact. I am of firm view that chinese will take drastic action to subdue demand and reign in inflatioary problems... If you look at global indcators such as BDI index, and also look at some of emerging...

Hi NR, You made a very good point: “We have had 16 years of unprecedented growth and it seems some cannot see the forest for the trees. I'm not suggesting you sell all your properties and put it into cash. I am suggesting that if you want to make hay when the streets are filled with red...

Hi GR, With all due respect GR, I enjoy your posts as much as the next guy, and you have a lot of knowledge. However, I dis-agree with some of your comments .. if u look hard enough you will even find positive investments even during the great depression. When this thread was started...

Hi Aus, These are huge projects that will provide value to Australia over the long term and are very strategic. The investments in these assets is essential to Australia – and im all for it. Remember these are giant projects over a number of years .. But need to keep things in...

yup... i welcome a slowdown .. its part of normal business/economic cycle .. not acknowledging this cycle and not accepting that reality is that atm global and domestic economy is slowing down, is being in denial .. as a investor its important to be distinguish between being 1. ever...

my view remains same.. the statement "worst is over" is very generic .. in terms of credit market volatility i agree... bernanke warning of rate rises.. any rate rises will simply throw credit markets back in turmoil .. so bernanke may have to put up with high inflation for a while ...

the prediction of global slowdown from last year is here .. next, whats the impact on australia.... these things are slow moving glaciers, but with massive momentum.. 09 will be it.. technical recession or not, the "impact" of a recession will be with us next year.

"Babcock & Brown Power (BBP). BBP got shellacked late last week after it tipped the ``shorts'' off, conceding it could need to raise another $300 million in equity to fund its capex requirements. It was already struggling to refinance its debt. Now the stock is 40% lower in two days of...

"Worst is over for battered market" me? nope.. definitely don't believe that

Hi Kenneth, Agree with Oliver credit markets are adjusting and spreads are reducing.. you may have seen my thread that said "banks unlikely to raise more than RBA" a few weeks ago.. it was based on exactly the same findings. However, don't expect the spreads to go to historic lows as in 04 - 07...

another update .. in my opinion the medium to long term bond markets are looking very *shaky*. Inflation has the potential to destroy the medium-long term US treasuries. One of the reasons i rekon US is and has been understating inflation (also to prop up GDP) ... If at any stage, all...

If there isnt enough productivity increase, only asset speculation and consumption thru leverage of those assets.. then the 2 billion extra people are directly competing for about the same number of goods.. you seem like a clever person, can you figure out what that means?

Nothing wrong with a slowdown or recession. In long term they are good for economies and balance things out, so speculative froth is removed and capital moves to more productive areas. Remeber the tech wreck.. if tech companies werent allowed to go down, we would have heaps of companies...

Hi GR, thanks for the post and insight. however, few points i dont agree with you.. it depends on the time frame you are looking at and also the intention.. if one is looking to open a business/trade etc then intentions are different to someone looking for passive exposure thru shares...

ahh the delusions ... wont be long now.. hmm maybe 09 .. nice bunch of key events by then. Looking at both sides of the coin for US atm: On positive side we have: Various indicators showing that credit markets have calmed down. There have been earning surprises from multi-nationals...

Hi BC, not the bear market.. the bear market RALLY will reverse.. the recent 10% rise.. if US pauses rate cuts, short term treasuries will come under great pressure.. currently they are yielding close to 50 year low yield.. the yield curve is looking 'normal' .. as they start rising the curve...