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That part of my post was in reply to this comment and I did give you examples of modern day China's behaviour. Anyway I knew this was going to embark us on a lengthy debate that has little to do with the original thread so maybe I should stop now. :)

I don't think China can have anything long term with the current Russia. For China Putin is a one-man band and too erratic at that. When he goes the whole Russian edifice will have to be rebuilt again. China is looking at her western borders with glee: a string of failed states too weak to...

Thanks Freckle. Not a bad analogy. On the world's go board it looks like the US pieces are all scattered around making little impact while the Chinese ones keep gaining ground. Africa is interesting, but have a look at Laos to get a better idea of what could happen. In this sparsely...

Not here to defend Japan or whoever. But regarding China's past and present I can only suggest you do a bit more research and balance your views with a bit of non-Chinese perspective. Find out the tiny area where the Hans started out and what happened over the centuries to the hundreds of...

Not keen to start a debate about this but I think you're just a bit biased. On a nationalistic scale I guess both China and Japan would rate rather high. For both, a lot of pride and almost a sense of being exceptional among races. Both have been imperial powers, but while Japan was...

When I was in China a few weeks ago it was loudly announced that the central government will no longer come to the rescue of localities in trouble. This, I think, to stop the "moral hazard" of having local governments going on credit binges in the knowledge they're going to be bailed out if the...

Bump... China's local government finances look more and more like a Ponzi, basically relying on new land sales to service existing debt. With property values dropping and land sales becoming problematic, a central government bail out could be needed at some stage...

I see a lot of people stocking on gold... No panic yet but certainly a new sense of vulnerability.

With this kind of scheme you're more likely to be caught in Australia than in China. Not only is China a big country to control but the bulk of the government's efforts is focused on the political side of things. Despite the lack of democracy the power structure is much more fractured than...

Ha ha... he's back on his feet, just started something new in JV with his cousins. The amazing thing is he's still on friendly terms with the borrowers that defaulted on him. His dad says he's going to go far. :D

China gives the impression of a tightly controlled economy but I'm not so sure about that. When visiting last year I had a taste of the shadow lending scene. I was told that the quasi-totality of small and medium businesses never borrow from banks. They'd rather pay 20% interest to private...

There have been predictions of a Chinese credit crunch for some time now but nothing has transpired. However this time it's looking more serious. I'm getting bad vibes from the people I know in China anxious about the wave of bankruptcies that has hit mid size developers. Unlike the...