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I went to Seven Hills once - I thought it was a dump to be honest. Guess it isn't too far out of town which is a plus. Anybody who pays $1mil to live there has a VERY long term view or is insane - you could get a much nicer area for that sort of money.

Posted 20th Sep 07 .... It's nearly mid-2008. Another 2 months and it will be mid July 2008. Need a $100K median price drop in 2 months .... :eek: Let's keep this thread alive ... there is still a chance. Lots more for sale around my area ... loads of open houses every weekend. Not...

Hi Kenneth - I moved my answer to a new thread. We are off topic. Have a look for "limit to household debt" if you are interested. Thanks.

Sorry Andrew to continue to hijack your thread ........ not sure how else to reply to this. Thanks Shadow for sending through the link. The survey (Mercer HR Survey) was on the cost of living - (cost of housing, transportation, food, clothing, household goods and entertainment) - not house...

In 2000 I was 24 - overseas, constantly smashed, wasting all my money plus some on nothing much. I don't regret it though - best time of my life. I am an economist (of sorts - Masters degree - no PHD unfortunately) - hence the very long term macro view of everything - and the key point of...

Yeah. Not the be-all-and-end-all ... its just another study. What it says to me is if Australia doesn't sort out its crap I think Canada is a good option - Toronto and Montreal are very reasonable. Bloody cold though! Even Hobart is in the top 25 - amazing...

Fair enough - a median place is not always the same. Studies like that have their complexities but they are better than time series in my view. Time series has lots of issues because everything else is changing at the same time. It cost me to sell out - mainly fees - I'm on an awful...

Great question. I haven't seen house price to wages graphs for Japan. I expect it got to ridiculous levels at the peak because they were talking about shared equity loans, loan terms over generations etc etc. The wages just weren't there to support the prices so they needed access to lots...

I have actually. Bought an apartment in late 2002, sold it mid 2005 for about an $80K gain. Nice bit of speculative luck. Since mid 05 apartments in that area haven't moved much at all - too many apartments I think. Does it make a difference though? Any monkey could have done what I did...

Even if there was a shortage (and I'm not sure there is) that only has a temporary impact on prices while the supply side catches up. Is there some fundamental reason why we can't supply more houses at a reasonable cost? Do we have inefficient construction? NO. Do we have a land...

That supports what I am saying (which you didn't address). The bid up in prices from 2001 to 2005 has never happened before. It was steeper and faster AND it was in a time of low inflation (so real prices are even higher). So the logic that a drop has never happened before doesn't hold much...

The banks money plus on paper equity is probably what you have on the line. But uno, hope it works out for you and your bank.

A jump from 200 to 350 in only a few years is also a poke in the eye to historical records ... so whats your point? Increases above historical trend are OK but decreases (corrections) aren't? In fact, if debt levels were constant the recent dramatic rises simply couldn't of happened. So my...

alexlee - I don't think there is a lot of disagreement here especially on the micro trends. The only point I'd make is that macro does have an impact and shouldn't be ignored all together. No areas are completely isolated from the rest of the property sector. Lets say you buy a property...

alexlee - I am talking macro and long term, you are talking micro and short term so both can be correct. At the macro level over the long term, people can not keep paying more and more of their wage towards housing - there is a hard limit and that is 100% of wages. In actual fact it will...

At the macro level over the long term I can't see property as a category going up 5% annually. Why? Because if it goes up that is because somebody else is prepared to pay more than you did. If credit / wages is tight now, why will it be easier for your future buyer? There are surges and...

Thats a fair point. For example you could get the top 20% of incomes buying and selling median houses so that the median house can remain at a high price for a while yet. But long term the distribution of properties should come close to the distribution of incomes. i.e. high income = large...

That's my view - but of course I could be wrong!! :eek: Long term I'm not against property - especially if you find a good location. It's just about timing of entry so you don't overpay. Lenders have admitted that credit will tighten. So my theory is if all the bottom feeders can't...

My view is the $400K median is the absolute peak for Brisbane. People in Brisbane earn around $50K to $60K (household income) so despite the lack of supply or otherwise they simply won't be able to get the cash. Especially with the availablity of credit tightening. I actually predict a "lack...