"100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

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From: Anonymous


I was wondering what sort of impact this will have on property, not today, but in 6-12 months time when the full effects of job losses and uncertainty hits the market?

I feel as if there is still a lot of strength in the market now, but also believe that there is a "false ceiling" holding prices high. Given that people are borrowing as much as they can, I am fearful that many will lose their houses. Any thoughts?

I also believe, contrary to what others think, that housing will inevitably come down 5-10% in 6-12 months time. The simple fact is that money cannot be made in todays market, even over a 5-10 year period and people will come to realise this when times get tough. It's been too good for too long and with all that is happening around us, I just don't see the confidence in people that I used to see.

People can trick themselves into staying positive, that's what Wall Street did yesterday, but still fell 8% in the first hour of trading. At the same time, we have to be realists, sad I know, but true.

What do others think?

Regards,

Anon.
 
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Reply: 1
From: Robert Forward


Sorry Anon but I need to disagree with you on the point of "Money Can't Be Made In Todays Market". Money can be made on both rising markets and in falling markets.

A recent deal I've picked up will make me 500% on my cash outlay on purchasing 1 property within 3 months from trading the house.

Now (as an example only), if I had of shorted stocks such as AMP, NRMA, QBE I would have made a fortune in the last 3 days. AMP has fallen by over 15%, NRMA has fallen nearly 20% and QBE has fallen over 40% in just one day. It was easy to tell that insurance stocks were going to take a huge hit due to the WTC attack, so why didn't people short these stocks, I think it's cause this is outside their comfort zones.

Deals/money can still be made it's just harder to find those deals that can provide these returns. You also need to look at differently on your investing.

This is what the "Freestylers Network Group" is all about. You will have numerous people with different outlooks on investing that can help you see other nooks and crannies in the market that money can be made.

Cheers
Robert

The Sydney "Freestylers" Group Leader.
 
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Reply: 1.1
From: Anonymous


Sorry to say this Robert, but either:

1. You are not telling the whole truth
2. You are extremely, extremely lucky.

Either way, I wish you well in all your future endeavours.

Unfortunately, I go to work 5 days a week and spend the most of the weekend with my family and probably like the rest of us, cannot spend 100% of my time looking for "nooks and crannies".

I didn't have to do this 4 years ago, nor will I have to do this in 12 months time either when the market falls flat on it's face.

Regards,
Anon.
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2
From: Terry Avery


Why didn't people short the stocks you mentioned? Maybe because their
conscience wouldn't let them act like a vulture over the dead carcass of the
WTC attack. You sound disappointed you didn't swoop on the fresh kill in
time.

Yes it was easy to see insurance companies would take a big hit so maybe you
should reflect again on why traders didn't act on something so obvious.
Maybe the thought of profiting from someone's great misfortune pushed them
out of another kind of comfort zone, one not related to investing and the
dog eat dog world of trading.

My guess is they decided they would prefer to live with themselves, I know I
certainly would.

I hope your comments don't put you on top of everyone's list of people not
to do deals with, especially as you have recently struck out on your own. If
freestyling is ripping the guts out of the wounded then I guess I won't be
joining!!

Nuff said!
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.1
From: Robert Forward


Hi T Avery

Lets start with No I didn't short stocks, nor would I have. I was using the WTC attack as an example that money can be made in any market, be it going up or going down.

Now, if it had of been a "real" stock market crash, which has been on the cards for sometime anyway (not a preemptive crash due to the dreadful problems that terrorism bring), then why not short the stocks.

Would this have been fair?

My answer would have been yes. Let me also say, I haven't tried calls puts and short in the stock market cause I don't fully understand their workings as yet. I have other things that I am currently spending my time on to make money.

And this is what Freestyling is all about. Learning and finding out what other ways are out there to invest, but more then that, the groups are there for everyone to learn from each other to expand their mind.

Cheers
Robert

The Sydney "Freestylers" Group Leader.
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.1.1
From: Paul Zagoridis


Robert I think you've actually explained why those stocks weren't obviously shorted (I'm sure some people did short them).

Firstly most people don't know how to. The Exchanges have rules on how, what and how much.

Secondly it's easy to say with hindsight "how obvious". But do people in the market really KNOW? Short selling is risky because you may need to settle/buy in a rebound.

Every time I have the winning bid at an auction I feel sick. Why didn't somebody outbid me? What have I missed?

We both subscribe to the dictum "The harder I work, the luckier I get". Great deals take looking, you either like the hunt or not.

Paul Zag
Dreamspinner
Oz Film Biz is at
http://www.healey.com.au/~paulz
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.1.1.1
From: Robert Forward


I completely agree with you there Paul.

Another factor/question to ask now.

Who thinks it's now ethical to be buying these shares that have fallen through the floor knowing that you'll be buying at a very good price?

I agree it wouldn't have been to nice
(ethical) to making a fortune off the attack in the USA. But what about making money know with these shares rebounding, is that ethical?

I'd particularly like to hear from T Avery about this question to see what your thoughts are.

Cheers
Robert

The Sydney "Freestylers" Group Leader.
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.2
From: Adam Randall


Hello
Assuming you treat everyone's misfortune even handedly (not just highly televised tradgedies)
you wouldn't buy a bargain at a deceased estate, nor would you buy an investment property resultant from a divorce, someone's job loss, car accident victim,would not invest in a security firm after a tragedy, in actual fact you should stop investing compeletly, as all stocks have been influenced by this event, or maybe just invest in shares that lose money for the next couple of months that way you can safely say you made no money out of this major catastrophe and loss of life. money is continually made on other peoples misfortune, Solicitors, and television reporters make a living off other peoples misfortune, the more misery the more money they make, I don't know a lot about the share market, however if someone is smart enough to make a connection between current world events and a particular stock, as far as I am concerned good on them. Everything from the sneakers we wear to the chocolate we eat or petrol thats put in our car here in the western world caused the misery of untold people before they reached us, yet we still use all these items (or do you walk to work). I don't think anyone should take the moral high ground over other investors decisions, if it is not illegal,does not harm anyone and you can live with yourself then its OK.
Adam
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.1.1.1.1
From: Terry Avery


Hi Robert,

I took your point from your reply to my post about when you would short
stocks (if you knew how) and I agree that all things being equal the WTC
provided an opportunity to go short. The point is that very few people did
out of respect for what happened. Even if someone had done so I doubt they
would ever be able to brag to anyone "I made a killing out of the WTC
killings" You would have to be pretty stupid with all the sentiment flowing
in the aftermath not to know that anyone taking advantage would be vilified
by their peers.

It is an interesting question as to how long you hold off sharp trading
practices before resuming them. I suspect that everyone is watching and
doesn't want to be a first mover in case they attract condemnation. One
argument about buying now when they have dropped so much is that it would be
doing your bit to support the market. After all it could be a dead cat
bounce and drop even further so there is still risk out there. Like a lot of
things it is timing. Monday and Tuesday were not the times to be
profiteering. I suspect that the market will slowly start doing what they
always do and then will be back into full swing in a rush.

My initial post was more of a cautionary that people's perceptions are
shaped by how you react to crises. What happened at the WTC was MASSIVE on a
scale not seen before. They thought that in one terrorist act they had lost
more than they lost in Pearl Harbour and D-Day combined! I myself was
stunned and couldn't believe what I was seeing. Even in the relative safety
of Australia, people are losing sleep over it and getting nervous about
their IPs and their portfolios. Anyway back to people's perceptions. You
mooted the idea of shorting to take advantage of what was a massive tragedy.
It would be easy to judge you on your ruminations as an opportunist and
having low ethical standards. I would hope that is not your character and
that you didn't actually see any harm in floating the idea. I felt it showed
a certain lack of sensitivity to the situation and I also hope that your
enthusiasm for contributing ideas to the forum was your intention as I know
you are a great contributor here. Sometimes shooting from the lip is not
appropriate and I think this was one of them. Thankfully tragedies of this
scale do not occur often so please don't feel constrained to say your piece
in future.

I hope that is enough on my thoughts.

Cheers
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.2.1
From: Terry Avery


Adam,

I think you left one bit out in your justification of profiting from other's
misery. What is society's opinion of people who do so? I would say it is so
low they could parachute out of a worm's bum. Sure they may be able to live
with themselves because they may have to if no one else wants to associate
with them.

Cheers
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.2.1.1
From: Adam Randall


Hello
I am not justifying anything, Im just amazed at the hypocritical nature of humans, we pick out certain events that are socially unacceptable, yet other events which have exactly the same result (ie misery and despair)are OK. For example put several hundred people who have escaped a country so horrific that we in Australia cannot even begin to imagine, refuse them entry, and pay a corrupt government to deal with our problem, and hey presto the government wins another 30% support. The only way you will not contribute to misery of others is if you go and live up a tree in the jungle. There is only one group of people I dislike more than those who exploit others for financial gain or otherwise, and that is people who exploit others (directly or indirectly) while pointing at the next person in line saying "but he's worse".
Anyway just my opinion which very much seems to be getting away from property investment, so I will now stop.
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.2.1.2
From: Chris Legg


Most speculators and hedge funds would be short in the futures market and have been short for some time. When events like last week happen you buy back your shorts to take profits this buying back of short positions actually stops the markets from falling further and faster than they otherwise would have done.
As per a previous post the stock market has been down from July to November in 19 out of the last 20 years ie 95% of the time. The opportunity to make the most money in a year occurs on the short side. Markets go up by the stairs and down by the elevator.

Further research check out Jesse Livermore 1907 San Francisco Earthquake Joseph Kennedy and Bernard Baruch 1929 Stockmarket Crash

It is somewhat simplistic to expect people not to make money out of other peoples misery

Someone is buying Nike products manufactured by other peoples misery
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.1.1.1.1.1
From: The Wife


HI T Avery.

I just wanted to put this small foot note in here.
I avoided contributing to this thread so far, Rob has typed things before that have come across the wrong way, his fault, he does shoot of at the mouth, but I have never known his intentions to be un-pure, I put it down to over excitement or over enthusiasm or youth.

I just wanted to let you know, that all business dealings aside, Robert Forward is a good and trusted friend of my husband and I, he is ethical, and sensitive,

He and Tracey ( Ms.Flip) are one of the few people in this world I have ever left my children (the most precious things in my life) in the care of. Rob has had ample opportunity to profit of me, or to take money from me in a multitude of ways, it is a sign of his integrity and sense of 'right' that he hasnt. Theres a whole lot more that I could say, and things I have seen Rob be a part of and help with, but I think my short note is already long enough.


Just wanted to make sure the record was straight. Back to the investing forum.

Cheers, TW
~Life is a daring adventure, or nothing at all~
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.2.1.2.1
From: Tom Cleary


In a speech today at the Asia Society, George Soros noted that taking short positions isn't unpatriotic. Far from it:
That's how markets get made.
The Rothchilds made their fortune on the basis that profit is made when there is blood on the streets

Regards
Tom
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1
From: Robert Forward


What else can I say, other then, I'm humbled.

Thanks TW.

Robert
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.1.1.1.1.1.2
From: Terry Avery


Thanks TW,

I hoped that would be the case, I just wanted to point out that in a forum
like this what you say, and how you say it, can be important as people can
take it the wrong. There have been occasions where I have deleted emails
because on reflection it was too much a case of not engaging brain before
engaging mouth.

Thanks for your input.

Cheers
 
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"Re: 100,000 jobs lost and WAR."

Reply: 1.2.2.1.3
From: The Wife


I'd like to vote

"so low they could parachute out of a worm's bum"

As the phrase of the week.

TW
~Life is a daring adventure, or nothing at all~
 
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