2003 BOOM

Reply: 1
From: Tibor Bode


Thanks Mike,

I just wrote to the Australian 2 days ago a comment regarding to further interest rate rises and the perceived boom we have here.
I am out of work for over 2 months (25 years experience in IT and working in finance/insurance sectors where several companies have complete IT project and staff freezes on), hear more and more anecdotal evidence from other people, that I am not alone and some already started selling their assets just to live on. Basically in finance and insurance IT, it seems to me that there is a full blown recession. It has never been so bad, not in 82/83 or 90/91 not only according to me, but also to other people who are in the industry for just as long or longer than I am.
My only concern is still whether the Reserve
will do as you have suggested (I still hope that you are right and I am wrong) or in their zealousness to contain the property boom and conceived inflationary pressures will go to the full distance and ensure that we have a recession.
But it is good to see that some other tunes start to appear in the media than the 'miracle economy and fantastic growth" that Oz has.


Tibor
 
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Reply: 1.1
From: Glenn Mott


And the simple answer to all this again is.....get rid of the tax deduction for negative gearing and leave interest rates alone!

Glenn
 
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Reply: 1.2
From: Jef .


Tibor,

I can feel what you feel. I have been working in the IT industry for more than 20 years, this is the worst I have ever seen. We just saw 50 IT people retrenched yesterday in our company, walked out of the office, some after 15-20 years of service to the company.

Full blown recession in the IT industry is not an understatement. I am glad The RBA has good sense to keep interest on hold. And I hope that people will stop all this greed buying to bring housing market back to a calmer state.

So much for the miracle economy.
 
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Reply: 1.2.1
From: Tibor Bode


Jef,

You are just confirming what I see on the market. In excess of 1000 application for 20 Oracle developer position! In excess of 100 application for an AP position is a usual response from agents! There must be hell lot of people out of work in IT.
Where companies are shortsighted that all these people (usually above or well above the average wage) are also consumers! So, in the short term the companies profit might soar (reduced cost), but these people will spend less, meaning the profits will fall back.
Myself as a consumer I have cut back quite dramatically on goods and services and several of these will not be on my expense items list when I will have a job again! One just learns again, that one can live without all the latest gizmos and services are on offer.
Government will take less tax (both direct and indirect) and will have to pay more in unemployment and other benefits. Later they also will have more problems, as people can not save (no super or investments) which based on the generally under founded state of the boomer generation for retirement, could have quite dramatic consequences in the longer term.
For real estate, it will definitely cool the market as people loose the "positive" outlook
(meaning their job / earning security) and will think twice before jump into any large purchase like buying a property. Other parts of the economy will also suffer as discretionary spending will be reduced.
Here the Reserve can change their course (how quickly and how much is the issue), but without significant re-employment in an fully or overpriced market, I still can not see who will be the buyers. There will be still some people out who will buy, but the mass hysteria will be over. The good bit in it, that when the water level drops, we can found out who has not got the trousers on(heavily negatively geared and over extended) meaning, some great opportunities will be around the corner.
Of course this depends on how long this current situation will last. Last time after 6 months the same idiots, pardon, managers who sacked people big time started to cry foul and started to re-employing them ,at an additional cost of course which killed the original savings not even talking about lost experience, low staff morale, etc.
But this just shows that the economic cycle is well and alive and it is the SAME THIS TIME AROUND.

Amen.


Tibor
 
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A

Anonymous

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Reply: 1.2.1.1
From: Anonymous


Mmmm... interesting stuff.

I, too, was shafted from my IT job last year with 20 years experience under my belt. Needless to say, I was a bit pissed off about it, but as I started to go through the interview process again, I thought to myself: 'I don't want to do any of this crap any more', and basically withdrew from the market. As you say, there was less and less around, and what there was, was very dull and boring.

I'm not really complaining though - I did OK out of I.T., earning pretty good money and travelling the globe at corporate expense, but I reckon the IT industry has only itself to blame - it shot itself in the foot by pricing itself out of the market. In the 90s, all the larger companies were scrabbling to get integrated systems such as SAP & Oracle etc installed - initially at huge cost plus the same again for implementation - squillions of $$$ - for what measurable gain on the bottom line?

Then came the Y2K mania - more huge expense.

Then everybody had to prepare for GST - more $$$ - and the lunacy of the dot.coms finally exploded (imploded?) and everybody just stood back and thought 'shit - what's happening?', wondering where all the money went and what it was spent on and for what return

And they're still wondering.

Just like us, wondering where the next job opportunity will come from, or whether we should get ourselves re-trained in another industry, and if so, which one?

Or we just say 'stuff it' and battle on building our own wealth through property.

Good 'ere, innit? And it's Friday, too.

Have a good weekend - I think it might actually be getting a bit warmer, or is that just wishful thinking?
 
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Reply: 1.2.1.1.1
From: Tibor Bode


On 7/5/02 3:21:00 PM, Anonymous wrote:
Hi Anon,
>
>I, too, was shafted from my IT
>job last year with 20 years
>experience under my belt.
>Needless to say, I was a bit
>pissed off about it, but as I
>started to go through the
>interview process again, I
>thought to myself: 'I don't
>want to do any of this crap
>any more', and basically
>withdrew from the market. As
>you say, there was less and
>less around, and what there
>was, was very dull and boring.

I can totally relate to your feelings, and also considering the same.

>I'm not really complaining
>though - I did OK out of I.T.,
>earning pretty good money and
>travelling the globe at
>corporate expense, but I
>reckon the IT industry has
>only itself to blame - it shot
>itself in the foot by pricing
>itself out of the market. In
>the 90s, all the larger
>companies were scrabbling to
>get integrated systems such as
>SAP & Oracle etc installed -
>initially at huge cost plus
>the same again for
>implementation - squillions of
>$$$ - for what measurable gain
>on the bottom line?
>
>Then came the Y2K mania - more
>huge expense.
>
>Then everybody had to prepare
>for GST - more $$$ - and the
>lunacy of the dot.coms finally
>exploded (imploded?) and
>everybody just stood back and
>thought 'shit - what's
>happening?', wondering where
>all the money went and what it
>was spent on and for what
>return
>
>And they're still wondering.
>
>Just like us, wondering where
>the next job opportunity will
>come from, or whether we
>should get ourselves
>re-trained in another
>industry, and if so, which
>one?

Your analysis is exactly the as mine, with the only difference, that the big time stuff up decisions were made by senior idiots, pardon, I keep forgetting, management (lots of very well known suits) and their very
(-in)competent board mates, not by the people
who were shafted. They are just the pawns (resources)in the game plan.

>Or we just say 'stuff it' and
>battle on building our own
>wealth through property.

Yep, seems a reasonable solution, just those annoying bills still coming in and distracting me from it.

>Good 'ere, innit? And it's
>Friday, too.
>
>Have a good weekend - I think
>it might actually be getting a
>bit warmer, or is that just
>wishful thinking?


You to and yes it is just wishful thinking, it is actually bleeding cold to my liking)

I am not sure how the above relevant to this thread, but some bleeding heart IT whinging at least helps not to feel sorry for myself.

Tibor
 
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A

Anonymous

Guest
Reply: 1.2.1.1.1.1
From: Anonymous


Tibor, Tibor, Tibor.

It's management's JOB to stuff up - that's what they do best - that's what they get paid for. And when they stuff up REALLY well, they pay themselves huge bonuses and celebrate. That's how it works.

(I know it has nothing to do with the thread, but who cares?)
 
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Reply: 1.2.1.1.1.1.1
From: Tibor Bode


Seeing it so many times turned me off investing in some of our largest companies.
I know it is their job, they got promoted to their level of incompetence, so they blossom.
Until someone realizes that something is not quite OK, so then they have the golden parachute to do it all over again in another company.
As I said, the cycle is well an alive, on ALL fronts.

Anyway, lets get back to RE, it is much more interesting.

Tibor
 
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Reply: 1.2.1.1.1.2.1
From: Tibor Bode


Owen,

I used to be at (not sure which bank) when THEY arrived. The bullxxxx was flowing all over the place and promises and job security and job satisfaction and everything were made

UNTIL
they took it over

THEN

first there was THEM (the outsourced) and US

second we send home anyone who dares to drink any alcohol during lunchtime (serious, it actually happened)

around this time I left as I could not stand the smell any more

third get rid of contractors (or turn them into permies) and the majority with understanding of the business
left / transferred / downsized (sorry I am running ahead of myself)

THEN

employed some young "have no idea what its about" uni students who were happy to have a job and very little pay

THEN

ALL idiots (pardon me again), MANAGERS were proudly announcing how successful this JV was
(obviously they did not talk to to many not so senior execs)

THEN

rightsizing started (down/up/out/in/any/chose whatever you like)

and we arrived to today.

When I mentioned at the time of the original
love affair, that the same company not very long ago did the same in the US (rightsizing)
of course I was talking to myself (it comes and goes).

So, sorry mate I just hope you have some other passive income or not up to your eyeballs in debt or will get a job asap.

Tibor
 
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Reply: 1.2.1.1.1.2.1.1
From: Owen .


Hi Tibor,

Gee, that story sounded familiar.

Don't worry about me. I'll be sticking my hand up as soon as the word "redundancies" is whispered. And if that's not soon I'm out of here anyway. And not to another J.O.B...

Owen

"Gambling promises the poor what property performs for the rich – something for nothing"
 
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