2011 to 2013 - the coming world depression ?

[perky29]

Hi all,
I would like your thoughts on this.
At the Peter Spann Investor update last night , Peter gave his thoughts on the next 10 years.
He started by saying we are about 60% through the share market boom, and this will continue on to late 2009/2010. The Dow Jones will hit 30,000 by the end of the decade , Asia will continue to be very strong but volatile.
After the next 3 years of great growth, the world will enter a recession - possibly depression after a series of problems and finally "an unknown trigger" will cause a world wide collapse.
Unemployment will be high, and interest rates will go over 11%. Inflation will spiral upwards. This large recession will go from 2011 to 2013, and the world will recover from 2013/2014 and a new cycle will begin.
Peter says to have as much cash and gold bullion as possible, property prices will crash during this recession and those with cash reserves / gold bullion will be able to get real bargains.
What do you all think?
Alarmist - or likely event - and why?

 

[see_change]

Possible . Likely ?

I'd guess that anyones opinion is really a guess.

See Change

 

[grossreal]

hi perky29
I would agree and I think the trigger will be some time around these dates and will be the emergence of india and china and there cronic male dominated societies and there aged population relying on the these groups to fund the older generation when you have a single child trying to pay for four people it will implode and there won't be the funding to do it.
currently china has and has had a two generations a one child policy so they have grand parents (4) being look after by a single unit and they have 1 child and that child marries now you have one unit carrying 6 people on his side and six people carried on her side and no social security and no way of funding the aged.
the ecomony is asking two people to carry 12 aged people.
the same with the indian continent when these groups start to become a cost to the community the debt will be not seen before in my time.
we in australia will be the same when my group the 40 to 50 join the baby boomers and for me I will be ok I think as my structure will be able to sustain as far as I have been able to test such a hit the goverment here will have tostart cutting pensions to stay afloat as the number of pensions will increase a very large amount as they come on line.
in a receassion two things make money, booze, hotels and pubs in any market hence my move into hotels.
if and when it happens nobody knows but yes I do believe that it is on the cards and hence the reason china wont let its money out they are stock piling peters gold.
not sure about values dropping as you should pin your value on the rental you get and rentals go up not down in that type of recession and if you think its about to happen lock it in with a lender,
I see the trigger comming from these two markets I maybe wrong but thats the reason I am keeping a very close eye on both.
thats my .002 worth

 

[RichardC]

This is taken from a post last night:

"I have no idea what the next inflation will look like and that is why I have merely suggested to think about it. Personally, I think it will be cost driven and be closer to stagflation. But what would I know? Then again it could be hyper-inflation or even deflation. A continum of current benign conditions is my least likely scenerio."

Note the last sentance. Some smarter men than I believe the hyper-inflation scenario. The "Greater Depression" theory is not as common but gold coins buried in the back yard is good insurance in both instances.

Peak Oil could be the trigger and we know about that. It's just that not many take it seriously.

 

[oc1]

Hi all,
I would like your thoughts on this.
At the Peter Spann Investor update last night , Peter gave his thoughts on the next 10 years.
He started by saying we are about 60% through the share market boom, and this will continue on to late 2009/2010. The Dow Jones will hit 30,000 by the end of the decade , Asia will continue to be very strong but volatile.
After the next 3 years of great growth, the world will enter a recession - possibly depression after a series of problems and finally "an unknown trigger" will cause a world wide collapse.
Unemployment will be high, and interest rates will go over 11%. Inflation will spiral upwards. This large recession will go from 2011 to 2013, and the world will recover from 2013/2014 and a new cycle will begin.
Peter says to have as much cash and gold bullion as possible, property prices will crash during this recession and those with cash reserves / gold bullion will be able to get real bargains.
What do you all think?
Alarmist - or likely event - and why?

Its all from the book by Harry S Dent "The next great bubble boom - How to profit from the greatest boom in history 2005-2009"

Just look at the cycles and trends of all the things mentioned abve and its not hard to figure out that the above may happen. Be prepared!!!

Oscar

 

[austini]

Okay,

That's it. I'm heading out to buy my Ak47 on the black market to protect my anticipated Gold stockpile.

Given this forecast it might be a good time to start the Living on Equity debate

Cheers - Gordon

 

[oc1]

Okay,

That's it. I'm heading out to buy my Ak47 on the black market to protect my anticipated Gold stockpile.

Cheers - Gordon

Gordon

You would be surpsrised how many are doing what you just mentioned in the states. Check out goldismoney.info

Oscar

 

[buzzlightyear]

Credibility

Does anyone actually go back in history and check to see whether the 'experts' past predictions (for 5+ years) have ever been right?

Did anyone pick the current commodities boom in 1999-2001?

Did anyone in 1992 pick the property boom for the late 90's/early 00's?

BIS Shrapnel can't even get close with their interest rate forecasts (which are only 2 years out!). I am very dubious of these predictions.

 

[see_change]

I remember reading this book in the late 80's and alot of people believed in it.

The Great Depression of 1990 by Ravi Batra

This review makes some interesting points about forcasters

http://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpgt/0502021.html

See Change

 

[austini]

Well when the time comes and I have my AK47 I'll sneak in and steal Peter's ferrari whilst he's down in the bomb shelter guarding his gold

Cheers - Gordon

 

[The Y-man]

Well when the time comes and I have my AK47 I'll sneak in and steal Peter's ferrari whilst he's down in the bomb shelter guarding his gold

Cheers - Gordon

He said he'll have a tank protecting his gold and cows.

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[yadreamin]

I read an article from USA, on Aussi stock forum yesterday, saying that the circumstances that occured in the lead up months of the great crash of 1987 are very similar and in some instances the same as to what has occured in the last few months.

Its sees to be all doom and gloom.It sure does not take too much to tip the scales.

I quess if everyone is rushing out to buy gold its gotta help the price??

cheers yadreamin

 

[austini]

He said he'll have a tank protecting his gold and cows.
Cheers, The Y-man

Bugger, it looks like it may need to be a covert operation. Maybe if I can get the cows to stampede (perhaps a ill-tempered, randy bull) as a distraction I can get to the ferrari

Gordon

 

[XBenX]

These opinions are always about.

The next great depression has always been just around the corner and the reasons why this will occur have always been backed up with statistics that sounded relevant.

Many years on and we are still waiting.

It just depends on your point of view imho. Half full or half empty.

Most of the time a bit of balance is what is required!

 

[grossreal]

hi austini
no point stealing the ferrari as the price will have dropped.
the ak47 will have a higher value so you will need to protect the ak47.
and gold is not the best thing to buy either as its to easy to convert and steal you need to get into some thing that floats on top of these problems and keeps you liquid.
got it
go into politics and then your income and loans pegged against inflation costs and you get free meals.
and you will probably get the ferrari via a special buy back scheme to would be bunker owners for food and you can sell the ak47 for heeps of cash.
as you will be able with your pen to have around the clock protection.
or join the local mafia.
oh sorry by joining the political party you have already joined.

 

[willair]

This large recession will go from 2011 to 2013, and the world will recover from 2013/2014 and a new cycle will begin.
Peter says to have as much cash and gold bullion as possible, property prices will crash during this recession and those with cash reserves / gold bullion will be able to get real bargains.

IMHO.........
Just had a look outside the bunker,and the sky is falling and some readily
forget what its like to lose money.But i do agree on one item that the asx
is not going to stop, a few bumps like yesterday and last week next
it will be back to normal,new punters jump in line as we see today
in the markets.i do not care 1% about recessions but for someone to make that statement that far into the twilight zone for me just makes
more unanswerable questions more unanswerable..
Anyway i'll will go down and dig up the semi auto's and oil the barrels
just in case..it's always other peoples opinions Mr Spann............
and these opinions are mine and only...

 

[leapyeah]

There's profits for them thar prophets of doom...

 

[handyandy]

How can I do a margin loan against gold?

Is there any product that recognises gold as security and allows, say, 60-70% LVR against it?

Where would the mortgagee hold the gold as one of the criteria of gold is access?

Cheers

 

[grossreal]

i have two very large bank vaults. if some one wishes to lease them to hold your gold

 

[stretchy]

Trying to guess the direction of something as complex as the world economy is plain silly IMHO. Its far better spending your time developing strategies on how to profit from growth rather than stockpiling gold and guns for the impending doom thats just-around-the-corner-promise-we-got-it-right-this-time predictions. As I mentioned in the gold thread, lots of people said the same thing about the US in 1990. They spent the next 10 years watching stocks go through the roof, sitting on the sidelines in defensive assets that went absolutely nowhere. I'm not predicting this will happen again but thats the point - prediction is next to useless. Show me someone who can predict the world economy to that degree and I will show you someone who doesnt need to hold investment seminars anymore. Deal in probabilities, not predictions. Its a much more balanced approach to investment, and doesnt leave you in a position where you bet the whole farm on something that never eventuates.

There is a higher likelihood of a recession in the next 5 years or so, simply based on the fact we haven't had one for a while and mankind hasnt tamed the business cycle yet. Recessions are a fact of life. But to throw around numbers like "30,000 dow" and "world-wide depression" is irresponsible. I plan on taking advantage of a recession if it happens, but it doesnt mean I will run to the hills with my stash of gold and AK-47 next week. No-one knows whats going to happen 5 years from now.

I did think Mr Spann was one of the better property promoters before hearing that... it has reduced my opinion of him by some degree. Maye his intended message was distorted by the poster a little - i certainly hope so.

And by the way, Harry Dent was one of the many fools that thought the US stockmarket boom in 2000 was entirely justified based on fundamentals. Have a read of his 'predictions' in 1999: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/7.09/prophets.html?pg=3 . The US went into recession about a year later.