93 homes a day to meet southeast Queensland population growth

By Craig Johnstone
Article from:


July 29, 2009 12:00am

SOUTHEAST Queensland will need to build an average of 93 homes each day for 20 years to accommodate an expected explosion in population growth.
A radical new plan by the Bligh Government to combat urban sprawl says half this new development will have to go alongside existing housing rather than on greenfield sites.
The redrafted South East Queensland Regional Plan has forecast the region will need an extra 754,000 homes to help accommodate a population of 4.4 million by 2031.
But the plan discourages the traditional fix for increased population – new housing estates on the city outskirts – in favour of "infill" development in established suburbs and around rail and bus corridors to limit car use.
Suburbs such as Indooroopilly, Carindale, Cleveland and Chermside, as well as coastal centres such as Maroochydore and Southport are scheduled for increased residential densities of up 120 dwellings per hectare. Other suburbs such as Wynnum and Strathpine will be transformed into compact urban living areas along the lines of Fortitude Valley.
Much of the new housing development will be pushed away from the coast and into the so-called western corridor, which could see the population of the City of Ipswich approach 500,000 in the next 20 years, more than triple what it is now.
About 900ha of land in the Redlands area has been locked away for development to protect koala habitat.
Planning and Infrastructure MInister Stirling Hinchliffe said 85 per cent of the region remained protected from development under the plan.
"The plan would manage growth, not just accommodate it," he said.
Developers have scored several wins, with the Government identifying areas outside the so-called "urban footprint" as possible future sites for housing. One of these areas, a parcel of land at Halls Creek between Caloundra and Caboolture, has sparked fears among local councils that valuable green space could be lost.
Some Queensland mayors yesterday expressed anger that the Government had failed to properly brief them on the plan before releasing it to the media.
Lord Mayor Campbell Newman said the city faced a major challenge to find room for 156,000 new dwellings.
"People have said they don't want a sardine city but we can't stop people coming here."
Sunshine Coast and Moreton Bay mayors Bob Abbot and Allan Sutherland slammed the plan, saying it would replace green space with industry.
They were particularly critical of the Government's decision to investigate urban expansion in the green belt that separates Greater Brisbane from the Sunshine Coast.
"These crucial areas should be protected for future generations, it's nothing short of a tragedy," Cr Sutherland said.
Urban Development Institute of Australia chief executive officer Brian Stewart called for compensation for developers prevented from building on land they owned.
 
always amazes me when I hear these projections :

- where's the 50% additional water reservoir going to be located?
- where's the road widening plans?
- where's the train capacity?
- why aren't current transport corridors already allowed to increase urban densities? after all, 2031 is only 22 years away.

and most importantly, what jobs are these people going to do and what's their median household income going to be?
 
and that is one reason , prices will continue to climb, and one day it will read 180 homes needed every day! but by then they will be 1m each !:D
 
interesting isn't it...

i had a meeting yesterday with the sales manager of one of this forums favourite real estate sales websites :)p) and in between the sales drivel the person let slip some of their recent stats...

there is currently a shortage of 22,000 homes in Brisbane alone and the interstate migration rate is expected to rise to 1500-1600 people per week in the next 12-18months.

put that in line with the above info and the result is frightening...WW i am with you!! WOAH!!! we're screwed!!!!!!!!!
 
interesting isn't it...

i had a meeting yesterday with the sales manager of one of this forums favourite real estate sales websites :)p) and in between the sales drivel the person let slip some of their recent stats...

there is currently a shortage of 22,000 homes in Brisbane alone and the interstate migration rate is expected to rise to 1500-1600 people per week in the next 12-18months.

put that in line with the above info and the result is frightening...WW i am with you!! WOAH!!! we're screwed!!!!!!!!!

Hi UC,

I'd love to understand the use of the term 'housing shortage' a lot better (in the context the sales dude used it).

I mean if we are 22,000 houses short, why is any one home on the market for more than 8 weeks?

A shortage implies there's people sleeping on camp stretchers in their parent's garages, and lining up at real estate agencies with 21,999 others putting in offers on multiple homes every saturday.

Maybe the dude really meant we are short 22,000 new 4/2/2s on 500m2+ under $250k each. :)
 
A shortage implies there's people sleeping on camp stretchers in their parent's garages, and lining up at real estate agencies with 21,999 others putting in offers on multiple homes every saturday.

Maybe the dude really meant we are short 22,000 new 4/2/2s on 500m2+ under $250k each. :)
I agree with you and Ausprop, I think affordability is a big factor - and not just in terms of capital values, but rent affordability. I believe that "housing shortage" refers to households that would exist - single people leaving the nest, extended family households splitting into nuclear families - if there was affordable housing available. So in other words, there are 22,000 "household groups" that are currently combined into larger households, which would be independent households if it weren't for finances.

Seems a bit subjective as to where the line is drawn, though, so I'm not sure how they measure it. I mean, if single people could rent a studio for $50 a week, there'd probably be heaps of 19yos who'd move out of home, but the fact that they can't rent a studio at that price, doesn't necessarily mean there's a housing shortage.
 
And that's the point I think the media and the market need to get clear about OP.

The primary problem isn't lack of supply, but affordability.

Ergo, the problem won't be resolved by providing 22,000 new dwellings, at current values. And the industry and govt need to be clear about that.
 
got to agree with all of that at one level or another...

I guess the simple answer is - I don't have one.

If I had to take a punt, i'd say it is all a bit of guesswork and just taken of census and migration numbers compared to known dwellings and building applications within the reporting area.

I would be very surprised if it took into account such finite details as affordability, demographics and the like.

reading the news items about a housing bubble recently would support the affordability argument as well - although that probably needs to be metered against those migration figures against too.

There is also an inordinate number of foreigners moving to SEQ at the moment as well - particularly from South Africa and the UK - they all seem to be cashed up and don't care about prices necessarily as they are still "affordable"compared to the prices some of them are used to...

Would be interested to hear from any recent migrants on the forums here in this regard.
 
There is also an inordinate number of foreigners moving to SEQ at the moment as well - particularly from South Africa and the UK - they all seem to be cashed up and don't care about prices necessarily as they are still "affordable"compared to the prices some of them are used to...

a great example of why 'affordability' can be a flawed argument. do you think the residents of Monaco expect a house price crash because they exceed a multiple of a shop workers wage? Take an upmarket seaside town - there is nothing affordable about it. So regional centres spring up, smaller cities take up the population growth etc.

save the affordability argument for the extremities of the cities... inner city properties can be any price the market is willing to bear
 
absolutely agree - Supply and Demand is king...

whilst the demand for property is there and the supply is short (as is the current scenario in SEQ) price points are only an issue for those trying to break into the market. Those already in and those who have the capital to play with are not concerned by a so called affordability crisis.

it's all relative!!
 
It all comes down to what people want, how much they want it - and where they want it (demand), how much of what they want is available (supply) and how much of their income/or sale of assets/or cash they are prepared(or have available) to put toward buying it. (affordability) All of these factors are fluid and hard to predict as they depend on emotions and economic circumstance.

If every adult wants (and feel they can afford) 1 house each then there is a shortage. If we are happy (or forced into by unaffordability) sharing with others there is oversupply.

So to say "93 homes a day for 20 yrs to meet SEQ population growth" means they are basing this on many assumptions and forcasts including population growth, people per household trends, affordability, standards of living/personal wealth, etc - but I guess that's what demographers attempt to do.
 
About 900ha of land in the Redlands area has been locked away for development to protect koala habitat.
Planning and Infrastructure MInister Stirling Hinchliffe said 85 per cent of Lord Mayor Campbell Newman said the city faced a major challenge to find room for 156,000 new dwellings.
"People have said they don't want a sardine city but we can't stop people coming here."
.
Every time Can-Do-Newman talks i get a smile on my face because in inner Brisbane under BCC control there is only around 400 thousand resi blocks,so in my simple way of thinking there is only 2 ways to go and one is skyward-multi level walkups,or shrink the size of the blocks down below 300 sqm either way i:) win..imho willair..
 
ROTFL - absolutely!!

The funny part of that is both those options are already on the go - the high rise has started in Nundah and Chermside, with much more to come...

and I saw a link on the forums somewhere the other day to a 3bedder that was on some stupidly small amount of land...

ahhh...capitalism!! :D
 
You know, the govt galahs that keep talking about SEQ population going up 50% need to answer some serious questions.

Let's take SEQ water supply.
Current Full Supply Capacity = 1,760,050 Megalitres
2031 Projected Additional Urban Water Suppy = 70,000 ML (from the unbuilt Traveston Dam)

Current SEQ Population = 2,800,000
2031 Projected Population = 4,400,000

% Change Planned
Water Supply = 4%
Population = 57%

Now considering Brisbane was on Level 6 water restrictions recently when water supply went down to 15%, this little black duck believes the probability of SEQ carrying 4,400,000 people by 2031 is science fiction.
 
the answer is simple....

All you "southerners" stay OUT!!! LOL
Sorry, too late. I arrived here on Tuesday, better change that address in my user CP... ;)

And I read that article on my first day here. Ipswich is basically going to triple in size over the next 20 years and take the bulk of that population growth for Brisbane. Basically the Kellyville of Brisbane I guess for all you Sydney-siders.

Cheers,
Michael
 
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