A tale of two cities -Melbourne and Sydney

Sydney will get tighter..........

Adds some more support to the undersupply issues that affect Sydney and should augur well for rents rising. :)

In Melbourne it looks like it's still yipee kayay for the developers with more stock to flood the market (I'm guessing Southbank and Docklands, but may include Carlton, Richmond et al). Tenants will be the winners in inner Melbourne apartment living. Plenty volume of new stock and fewer customers........tighten your belt$ landlords. :cool:

That's an interesting site, mech81...thanks for sharing.
 
An important point in that article was -

Finally, unless a substantial increase in new supply comes through, it is likely that new apartment supply in inner Sydney will remain in deficiency. This will continue to maintain pressure on rentals and result in upward pressure on prices over the next two to three years

Now, you could crow about this if you were an inner Sydney landlord (like me), or you could be worried (as I very much am) that this is a symptom of a seriously frozen state economy.

How can there be so much demand for housing, and yet no response by builders of every sort to that demand?

I personally know a couple of top-rank Sydney builders who have been sitting on the sidelines and simply playing golf every day for the last two years. (Their wives are not impressed, admittedly, but you get my point: They don't see any decent likely profit to offset the genuine risk inherent in the spec building game these days.)

My point is this: If the professionals are keeping their powder dry in Sydney, what should the amateurs (me again!) really be thinking about? Higher rents? How long can that go on until people reach their limit, and just decide to move interstate for a better quality of life (Hiya, WA!)?

To me, this is the big question: When will NSW economically unfreeze? You won't see "a substantial increase in new supply" coming through until that day, and that can't bode well for anyone in the long run.
 
An important point in that article was -



Now, you could crow about this if you were an inner Sydney landlord (like me), or you could be worried (as I very much am) that this is a symptom of a seriously frozen state economy.

How can there be so much demand for housing, and yet no response by builders of every sort to that demand?

I personally know a couple of top-rank Sydney builders who have been sitting on the sidelines and simply playing golf every day for the last two years. (Their wives are not impressed, admittedly, but you get my point: They don't see any decent likely profit to offset the genuine risk inherent in the spec building game these days.)

My point is this: If the professionals are keeping their powder dry in Sydney, what should the amateurs (me again!) really be thinking about? Higher rents? How long can that go on until people reach their limit, and just decide to move interstate for a better quality of life (Hiya, WA!)?

To me, this is the big question: When will NSW economically unfreeze? You won't see "a substantial increase in new supply" coming through until that day, and that can't bode well for anyone in the long run.

Because Belbo - banks are simply not lending for large developments....they require significant presales to cover all the construction debt before they lend money - plus they only allow 10% of sales to foreigners. Go figure
 
Aaron, point taken, but I meant the wider NSW economy as well. It's scary. Do you know anyone prospering here?
 
I am not saying that I dont agree, Sydney is in a bit of a sorry state. But there are always pockets, some spending (Inner west, and its light rail line) and I think a bit of hope with the new government looking like they will have a propensity for Re-zoning and land releases.
 
Because Belbo - banks are simply not lending for large developments....they require significant presales to cover all the construction debt before they lend money - plus they only allow 10% of sales to foreigners. Go figure

HA! you beat me to it.

Add to that ALL types of funding.

Banks know the economy is crap right now, and they want their exposure down.
 
I do, Nathan Birch and he hasn't reached his full potential yet :D

Yeah, but he's a one-man economic freak-show. (I fully intend to sign up for the show asap, before he just retires laughing, hopefully!) But aside from NB, it's hard to see a dawning of the sunshine of prosperity in NSW.

Wasn't the new Liberal government here going to change investment opportunity and temperament? I know it's early days, and they seem to be addressing a lot of malignant public service structures, but where's the business sector revival?
 
Belbo

Unfortunately labor did a lot of damage to NSW so it will take time for things to change. We also have to pay for their incompetence at federal level and the GFC isn't helping either.

What can the NSW government do?
I think they need to speed up the rollout of the projects they have in mind and to forget the AAA rating and take on some debt.
I do my bit by paying stamp duty and land tax
 
As well as the lenders appetitie for risk on larger projects waning, headworks charges and council contributions are amongst the most expensive in Australia. Also, you guys have too many councils in Sydney. Every few hundred metres another municipality and another set of rules, red tape and different town planning scheme(s) and different personnel to deal with.........you need a little dose of Jeff Kennet to amalgamate things for you. :p

Belbo, I agree it sucks on a commercial landscape especially in the field you deal with, however the longer the tightening persists the more expensive "dwelling costs" will get in Sydney. Sometimes a rubber band can only stretch so much until it snaps. :(
 
State and Federal government are really entirely different roles, so I'm neither willing to let state Labor mismanagement off the hook nor blame Coalition (or recent Labor) Federal mismanagement for the current NSW economic malaise. This is squarely a NSW problem, as Vic's outstanding recent comparative economic performance surely proves.

And I'm happy to say it again for the record: Kennett's reforms in Victoria are the bedrock his successor Labor administrations have by and large successfully built on, so I don't subscribe to the notion that any specific political party has a God-given monopoly over either good economic ideas or the good execution of them. (As Rolf always says in finance matters, look to good performers rather than to flashy brands.)

Nor does one need to be reminded of the eminent role of the 'elder statesman' under Australian political convention as 'guiding light only', which is proper to their no-longer-elected status and, for the most part, is duly respected by all our erstwhile political leaders. Kennett should comment, yes, and should guide his disciples, but he should not be a leader in the shadows, just as no-one ever should be in a democracy. (And that perhaps is where NSW Labor went so wrong, above all.) Kennett, I believe, would very deeply agree with this, and that is a real mark of the man. He ongoingly deserves his eminence as do many very qualified others, mostly all of whom have appropriately quietly controlled their egos and have curtailed their public profiles (even Keating, on his own scale admittedly).

But I'm not talking politics now; I'm talking economics. Does anyone have any idea how to rebuild this near-shattered NSW economy, aside from removing layers of useless bureaucracy and cutting taxes? Because, there's no viable 'cutting taxes' option actually available if you're realistic: There's only a 'reallocating of taxation sources' option here given how broke we are, and that's assuming a growing economy. Less bureaucratic stupidity will surely help, but the growth does have to come in the end from vibrant businesses, soaring order sheets and confident consumers.

BV, Player - As seemingly non-superstitious fellows I ask you: We're probably the most blessed national economy in the world, so why the heck can't NSW get its groove on here?
 
BV, Player - As seemingly non-superstitious fellows I ask you: We're probably the most blessed national economy in the world, so why the heck can't NSW get its groove on here?

Because we haven't managed to convince the federal government that if they don't start giving back our taxes they are history.
I want my taxes spent in NSW full stop.
 
Because we haven't managed to convince the federal government that if they don't start giving back our taxes they are history.
I want my taxes spent in NSW full stop.

Look, if you've got the numbers to convince me, I'd appreciate the effort BV. But I'm thinking a little GST imbalance (or some such) isn't the problem here. Oh, I'll carp like a harpy with you for our money back, don't worry! But which dogs are going to make the extra money despite the nasty tax tail? I know I for sure can't: The competition's gone kamikaze!
 
Belbo.

Ruddie thought he had NSW in his back pocket so when it came to projects he put NSW last and his state gov comrades thought they were in for life as well so they didn't get their act together and do something useful for the state.

To turn things around I think we'll need housing construction to take off but it requires less red tape. The granny flat initiative was a briliant move, we just need to loosen up the rules a bit more and like player said, we need less number of councils
 
After living in NSW for too long, I headed north to QLD and have never looked back except to lament my blue heritage.

Now QLD is hurting, but there is a tonne of upside just waiting to be realised.

WA and QLD is where it is at IMO.

No idea how to fix NSW. So many years of economic mismanagement in a row take a long time to unwind. Even if someone is actually trying to unwind it, which I don't see any evidence of.

I do hold properties in regional NSW because I do see some pockets of shining light. But as long as Sydney is hammered, NSW is in a stark "state".
 
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