Affordability highest for last Decade

Further ammunition against the Property is unaffordable lobby

Care of Property observer

Mortgage rates below 5% are widely available given the cash rate has remained constant at a record low 2.5%.

Loans.com.au, for example, is offering a mortgage with a comparison rate of just 4.58%, according to RateCity.com.au. BankMecu is offering home loans at 4.7% and State Custodians has a mortgage with a comparison rate of 4.74%.

Such low interest rates, along with slowing property price appreciation, have made housing more affordable at a national level than it has been for more than a decade, according to the March 2014 quarter HIA-CBA Housing Affordability Index, released last week.

The index showed that across the country affordability was at its most favourable level since March 2002.

Affordability improved during the quarter in Sydney, Perth and the Australian Capital Territory, while it remained unchanged in Melbourne. Affordability also improved in regional markets in Western Australia, New South Wales and South Australia.

Properties in Adelaide, Hobart and Brisbane, as well as regional areas of Tasmania, Queensland and Victoria became less affordable, the index showed.

In its affordability calculations, the index uses the Reserve Bank of Australia?s indicator lending rate for the discounted variable rate of all bank loans available to homeowners.

The interest rate used in the March quarter was 5.1%. At that interest rate, monthly repayments on a $350,000 mortgage taken over 25 years are just $2,067, according to RateCity.com.au?s home loan calculator.

While most economists agree there?s little chance of an interest rate rise in the near term, many expect rates to be lifted at some point within the next 18 months.

Variable rate loans are still the most popular type, despite the increasing take up of fixed rate mortgages. This means most people who take out a home loan are fully exposed to fluctuations in lenders? mortgage rates.

The probability that rates will rise means it is important for borrowers to consider higher interest rates in future when taking out a mortgage.

In the March quarter of 2013, the indicator lending rate was 5.67% and the year before that it was 6.67%.

The same $350,000 mortgage, over 25 years at a 5.67% interest rate would cost $2,185 a month ? $118 more than the indicator rate in March 2014.

If rates go back up to 6.67%, as they were two years ago when the official cash rate was 4.25%, monthly repayments would rise to $2401 ? $334 a month above current levels.

Over a 25 year period, interest rates will change dramatically. Between mid-1989 and early 1990, banks were charging an average of 17% on standard variable owner-occupied mortgages, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Some commentators say there has been a structural shift in interest rate movements that would prevent rates from reaching those levels again, but higher rates than the existing levels are considered more normal.

As recently as mid-2008, the indicator lending rate for bank discounted variable rates was at 8.95%. Repayments on the $350,000 loan back then would have been $2,925 a month. That?s $858 a month more than the cost at current prevailing interest rates, which could cause significant affordability problems for borrowers who have not planned ahead.

Housing affordability index

* Annualised

Source: HIA-Commonwealth Bank Housing Affordability Index* Annualised

Cliff
 
Here is why that index is bogus:

The main issue centres around its dwelling price series, which is based on home loans financed by the CBA during the quarter, and curiously shows that Australian home prices have been falling, despite every other data provider (including the ABS) reporting strong price growth.
www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/magical-home-price-affordability-exposed/

And what it would look like using the right data:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/the-corrected-cba-hia-housing-affordability-index/
 

I used to take the time to read macrobusiness , but never having read anything that I thought was relevant , unbiased or not peddling their perpetual view point now I don't waste my time . I'm also paying less attention to hotspotting as well , though I still like going there about 6 -12 months after I've done something for reasurrance I've done the right thing . He seems to be about that far behind the trends that get picked up here .

The more I've read over the years , the more I believe that the general consensus of active property investors on this forum is pretty spot on

Cliff
 
It's not about reading MacroBusiness opinion, it's about the dodgy stats CBA has used to construct their index. If you think house prices have been falling over the last 12 months as the CBA index suggests then you're entitled to that opinion, but I would think most here would disagree with you.
 
It's not about reading MacroBusiness opinion, it's about the dodgy stats CBA has used to construct their index. If you think house prices have been falling over the last 12 months as the CBA index suggests then you're entitled to that opinion, but I would think most here would disagree with you.

The problem with opinion on prices is a lot of folk - especially the media - are focused on a smallish area of housing; usually hotspot areas which are virtually always in demand, and at worst; flatlining for a year or so..

My observation is that a lot of the forum folk look at most cap cities, and mostly only a few areas in them...hence the perception that everywhere is booming etc.

I think I'd be more inclined to - especially if I was looking at the macro level - believe CBA; they do this stuff for a living.

Of course; we can all find our own little areas that defy the reports.
 
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I think I'd be more inclined to - especially if I was looking at the macro level - believe CBA; they do this stuff for a living.

By believing CBA, that house prices have fallen over the last 12 months, you are dismissing the evidence of data providers such as RP Data, APM, Residex, ABS & others.

Either side with the institution (CBA) who wants to sell you a mortgage or the half dozen data providers which say different.

IMO anyone who believes that affordability is the best it has been in a decade is delusional.
 
the CBA model is bunk. general median house prices haven't been falling anywhere - even Hobart.

affordability is about the same as it was - currently - in pre-boom periods nationwide except Sydney and about half of Melb suburbs.

considering they've just had / in the middle of a major upward price trend would explain that - that market needs to settle before bears or bulls rant on.

incomes have increased marginally as an average - but that data is skewed because the top end incomes are increasing more than the middle to lower incomes are falling.

so realistically, those you rent to; their incomes are falling and prices are rising.
 
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