All P.I.G.S. fed and ready to fly

From business Spectator:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ut-ruse-pd20100506-56SP7?OpenDocument&src=kgb

A Ponzi nation along with Portugal, Italy and Spain.

Riots, deaths, and this frenzy won't stop. Should the people be upset, sure. Should they react in this manner. I contend not. :(

No secret that I am proud of my heritage and the contribution to civilisation, democracy and other positive spin-offs.

However, this................... :eek: :mad:

Everyone except the c(r)ooks will pay:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...MF-debt-pd20100505-568KB?OpenDocument&src=kgb

German tax payers will have to work to 67 apparently, whilst the Greek tax payer can retire at 63.

Some irony that here is a country going to the wall and looking like a smoke and mirrors economy of the Ponzi variety and, they were also the first nation to debase gold and created the first fiat currency...........now a fiat nation :cool:

Not proud of this Derryn..........shame, shame, shame!
 
Is it the first domino? or will the bond market wolves have their fill with Greece?

In my opinion it is the most vulnerable getting picked off early, but certainly not the only one in the flock? Even after PIIGS there is still UK, US and other debt laden nations that have been given the bond market equivalent of NINJA loans.

nice little web of bebt

What is the $$ price for national/international harmony?
 
German tax payers will have to work to 67 apparently, whilst the Greek tax payer can retire at 63.


According to a news article on tv yesterday Greeks (living in Greece) are eligible to retire at 53 (!!!!!!!) but one of the requirements being imposed on them by the Germans is that the retirement age be raised to 67.
 
Who to believe

Hi ozharp,

I've seen it range from 58 to 61 or 63. Perhaps the age 53 retirement scheme is for public servants of varying classes or seniority.

No matter, an industrious nation (of late) it is not. Most Greeks in Greece seek (hunt) public service jobs for the pension benefits and high proportion of residual (salaried) income they enjoy as a pension. I'm not certain how accurate this is, however I read some time ago that 33 % (one in three) jobs are of this "public service" calibre. When said job is secured, the recipients boast how they are now "set for life."

Talk about unfunded liabilities......and sweeteners to win votes from days gone by. Time to pay the ferryman now. ;)

Not sure what the other piglet nations have as retirement policy. :confused:
 
Hi ozharp,

I've seen it range from 58 to 61 or 63. Perhaps the age 53 retirement scheme is for public servants of varying classes or seniority.

No matter, an industrious nation (of late) it is not. Most Greeks in Greece seek (hunt) public service jobs for the pension benefits and high proportion of residual (salaried) income they enjoy as a pension. I'm not certain how accurate this is, however I read some time ago that 33 % (one in three) jobs are of this "public service" calibre. When said job is secured, the recipients boast how they are now "set for life."

Talk about unfunded liabilities......and sweeteners to win votes from days gone by. Time to pay the ferryman now. ;)

Not sure what the other piglet nations have as retirement policy. :confused:

Makes me think of the CSS that I'm in, widely regarded as 'the goose that laid the golden egg' among financial advisers. Will enable me to stop working in a few years at age 55. Sadly I've only been contributing 5% but even so with income from the IP's I currently have as well I should have an income equivalent to at least $60k indexed for the rest of my life, hardly a kings ransom but as a single person with no bills and no dependents with my fully owned ppor I could do a lot worse. Hope to add a few more CF+ properties to my portfolio between now and then! :)
 
From business Spectator:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ut-ruse-pd20100506-56SP7?OpenDocument&src=kgb



http://www.businessspectator.com.au...MF-debt-pd20100505-568KB?OpenDocument&src=kgb

German tax payers will have to work to 67 apparently, whilst the Greek tax payer can retire at 63.

Interesting comments, although I have to say I've worked for a German company for 5 years, and travelled regularly there (both in East and West) and work with Germans every day, and I have never heard any of them describe themselves as "European". I suspect his psychological analysis of the German psyche is somewhat flawed!
Pen
 
The Greeks and other Europeans are not entirely at fault here.
It all started with subprime loans a couple of years ago and the bailing out of the banks.

Lack of regulation comes to mind.
The rating agencies, financial markets and large financial players were meant to be regulated a couple of years ago but for whatever reason they haven't been touched. Why were the rating agencies rating junk loans as AAA+ and are now rating guaranteed government bonds as junk?

Is it profiteering?
The same players who created the mess a couple of years ago are still playing the system and still doing whatever they want to the markets seeking to create profit opportunities at any cost.

The private sector losses are slowly being transferred to the tax payers.
First in the US and now in Europe and unless something is done it has the risk of causing whole countries to collapse.

Perhaps country defaults are what the hedge funds and others need to learn their lesson
but then unless the tap of speculation is turned off they'll find another victim.

IMHO
 
The finger can be pointed in many place on the who, what, why and when.

The reality is Greece is stuck in a pickle of a situation. They cannot execute sound tried true and tested government reaction to financial problems, which is to say, they are not allowed to print their way out of a corner due to being pinned to the euro.

So either Germany leaves the euro and the euro can get printed out of its debt problems, or Greece gets booted out of the euro and it can then inflate its way out of its problems using the good old drachma. Either way I believe another big does of inflation is almost guaranteed.

The other scenario is that all of Europe sticks there heads in the sand and signs a big fat cheque over to the banks. (must admit this could be a very likely scenario)

My bet (and it is wild and utter speculation) is on Germany getting disgusted with the whole process and leaving the euro (currency wise) taking any other sane European states with them to shelter back in safe Deutsche marks. The rest of Europe will then happily let loose on the printing presses.

The whole process will almost certainly involve a lot of civil unrest.
 
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They are not unknown for having vocal demonstartions however usually their "bark"is worse than their "bite". This state of affairs however (and it's only beginning), is disgusting.

I wonder what else may happen in that Southern European precinct with the rest of the consonants not unknown for a fiesty predisposition either.
 
My bet (and it is wild and utter speculation) is on Germany getting disgusted with the whole process and leaving the euro (currency wise) taking any other sane European states with them to shelter back in safe Deutsche marks. The rest of Europe will then happily let loose on the printing presses.

The whole process will almost certainly involve a lot of civil unrest.

The German people weren't happy about having to convert to the Euro in the first place, including when it was finally being introduced not being given the conversion they were promised. The politicians claim otherwise, but the conversion was never handled properly and prices were not adjusted accordingly. German people felt (and still do feel) like they've been ripped off.

Many are still unhappy with the situation, before all this Greek mess reared it's head. I think the average German would love to see the return of the Deutschmark.
 
The German people weren't happy about having to convert to the Euro in the first place, including when it was finally being introduced not being given the conversion they were promised. The politicians claim otherwise, but the conversion was never handled properly and prices were not adjusted accordingly. German people felt (and still do feel) like they've been ripped off.

Many are still unhappy with the situation, before all this Greek mess reared it's head. I think the average German would love to see the return of the Deutschmark.

That's the same in Greece to be honest. Cost of living has skyrocketed since the introduction of the Euro. I had the same feedback from people in Spain and Italian friends who visit frequently.

I never understood the real benefits to European monetary union. At least of Greece still had the drachma, it would be significantly devalued, and at least that would make their tourism far more attractive for overseas visitors and the industry more viable as it has been hit hard given all the lower cost holiday options in Turkey for example over the past 10 years.
 
That's the same in Greece to be honest. Cost of living has skyrocketed since the introduction of the Euro. I had the same feedback from people in Spain and Italian friends who visit frequently.

I never understood the real benefits to European monetary union. At least of Greece still had the drachma, it would be significantly devalued, and at least that would make their tourism far more attractive for overseas visitors and the industry more viable as it has been hit hard given all the lower cost holiday options in Turkey for example over the past 10 years.

From what I gather it's not only tourism that has suffered but a lot of industry has slowly pulled out over the years too. It was cheaper to go elsewhere.

And yes I agree, a lot of Greeks were against it. When this was discussed when I was there, before they joined the Euro, one of the most frequent complaints I heard was that businesses would be expected to remain open in the afternoon and they'd miss their siesta :confused:.

As much as I love their lay back approach to life it eventually comes back to bite you on the bum if you don't get you're act together during hard times.
 
From what I gather it's not only tourism that has suffered but a lot of industry has slowly pulled out over the years too. It was cheaper to go elsewhere.

And yes I agree, a lot of Greeks were against it. When this was discussed when I was there, before they joined the Euro, one of the most frequent complaints I heard was that businesses would be expected to remain open in the afternoon and they'd miss their siesta :confused:.

As much as I love their lay back approach to life it eventually comes back to bite you on the bum if you don't get you're act together during hard times.

The afternoon siesta isn't dead though! And its not only in Greece where it still lives on.

On a related note, Spain auctioned 5 year government bonds over the past few days and whilst are still way below Greece's, ~3.5% i think, they have increased from 2.8% a few months ago.
 
Interesting thoughts from Harry S. Dent, aqs he wrote a few years back:


"The perfect storm has been brewing: the collision between our long awaited
peak in baby-boom spending and the final bubble of this unprecedented
bubble boom, the oil and commodity bubble. It started with
the first severe crash in 2008, but that was only the appetizer. The main
course will be ushered in by an equally brutal crash that is most likely to
occur between mid- to late 2009 and late 2010 and take the Dow to as low
as 3,800, the 1994 low where the stock bubble first began.The last phase
of this bubble will likely cause stocks to resume their downtrend again
between April and September 2009. Oil prices are likely to see one last extreme bubble between late 2009 and mid-2010, with prices at $180+ before
the entire bubble boom,which started in late 1982 and is expected to
last until around late 2009, peaks and we then enter the Next Great Depression.
We will see the deflation of three great bubbles—stocks, real
estate, and commodities—and the broader deleveraging of the greatest
credit bubble in history.Your life is about to change for reasons outside
your control.You can’t change the direction of the winds, but you can
reset your sails!"
 
The perfect storm has been brewing: the collision between our long awaited
peak in baby-boom spending and the final bubble of this unprecedented
bubble boom, the oil and commodity bubble.

oil is being speculatively traded, but its wont be the catalyst for bring down the world, not for a number of years anyway.
Look at the contango trade, its BEARISH for oil.

As for commodities: crash for all i care, i dont have exposure, and i will actually benefit under this scenario.



It started with
the first severe crash in 2008, but that was only the appetizer. The main
course will be ushered in by an equally brutal crash that is most likely to
occur between mid- to late 2009 and late 2010 and take the Dow to as low
as 3,800, the 1994 low where the stock bubble first began.The last phase
of this bubble will likely cause stocks to resume their downtrend again
between April and September 2009.

who knows anything is possible, but this is VERY unlikely, why, because we have just been through a crash, the system is already in the process of healing itself. You dont get a crash after a crash on the SAME catalysts as the original crash.

Main risk to the system is the transfer of private debt onto government balance sheets. The risk here is inflation, and a potentially DECENT CORRECTION to the markets. The only way the markets will crash, is if, due to low interest rates, the speculative long trade financed through cheap debt, significantly increases the price of financial assets, significantly above current levels.

We will have corrections, possibly decent corrections, in the next year or so, but nothing like 2007-09, unless asset prices are significantly above current levels. With asset prices at current levels we can still have corrections and decent corrections.



Oil prices are likely to see one last extreme bubble between late 2009 and mid-2010, with prices at $180+ before
the entire bubble boom,which started in late 1982 and is expected to
last until around late 2009, peaks and we then enter the Next Great Depression.

sorry mate this was yesterdays story, get a new one.
 
As for commodities: crash for all i care, i dont have exposure, and i will actually benefit under this scenario.
.


How would you possibly benefit from commodities crashing? Australia's growth has been based on this increase in export earnings. The government debt from the last labor government was paid for by mining money by the Libs, and then the surplus we had 2.5 years ago came from mining cashflows and this is what Rudd used for stimulous. It's why Australia was one of the few countries with a government surplus. Continued mining exports from Chinese growth ment our economy thrived. It's why we escaped the GFC allong with the stimulous.

You seem to think Australia will charge along merrily if you took away over half our export earnings? It wouldn't. You would be effected.

Why is the US and Great Britain in trouble and not us? Why is Greece, Spain and the rest in trouble?


See ya's.
 
Why is the US and Great Britain in trouble and not us? Why is Greece, Spain and the rest in trouble?


See ya's.

I agree with you, it is so true PIGS are in trouble because of expensive commodity prices that expose their living beyond their means. Any commodity price drop will greatly benefit those country now in trouble with a much more sustainable trade position (specailly oil related commodities)
 
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