Keith
Cool, just keeping you honest
Cool, just keeping you honest
Analyst tips back to back rate rises
- Thread starter danielkanoon
- Start date
AbsolutelyCool, just keeping you honest
.Todays Job Ad Figures from ANZ are the final indicator that rates must rise sooner rather than later.
Some are now expecting unemployment to peak at around 6.2%, a huge difference from the 8.5%+ forecast only a few months ago. It's looking more likely that the market has got it right this time, and IRs will be 2% higher by next xmas, starting with +0.5% before this xmas.
Agree with you again....the numbers today were much better than I thought on employment. You even had the SMH reporting that hiring skills is difficult....
With this sort of news....the RBA might pull the lever early as tomorrow!
In the meantime....I will sit on the background and wait....there will be some good picking in about 12-18 months.
With this sort of news....the RBA might pull the lever early as tomorrow!
In the meantime....I will sit on the background and wait....there will be some good picking in about 12-18 months.
Absolutely
Todays Job Ad Figures from ANZ are the final indicator that rates must rise sooner rather than later.
Some are now expecting unemployment to peak at around 6.2%, a huge difference from the 8.5%+ forecast only a few months ago. It's looking more likely that the market has got it right this time, and IRs will be 2% higher by next xmas, starting with +0.5% before this xmas.
Funny thing is that hiring good staff at times like these is harder than when its going really well.
Mostly good folk wont leave their current job for the risk of a new higher paying or different role, for fear that this wont work out.
I have heard that the difference in stats between unemployed and gainfully employed is 10 hrs a week ?
The level of casualisation of the work force, and under employment is masking the true effects of whats actually going on.
If the RBA raises rates strongly this early in the receovery cycle to hobble the "run away" economy, I suspect we will be asked for more stimulus.
ta
rolf
Mostly good folk wont leave their current job for the risk of a new higher paying or different role, for fear that this wont work out.
I have heard that the difference in stats between unemployed and gainfully employed is 10 hrs a week ?
The level of casualisation of the work force, and under employment is masking the true effects of whats actually going on.
If the RBA raises rates strongly this early in the receovery cycle to hobble the "run away" economy, I suspect we will be asked for more stimulus.
ta
rolf
I politely think you are misunderstanding the RBA's intention.
If the RBA increases rates by 0.5% its still stimulatory just not so stimulatory.
I think the RBA is very worried about leaving rates too low only to have to really jack them up rapidly which could really cause severe economic damage, especially if its to burst future speculative bubbles of one type or another.
I've also got a feeling that the RBA wont increase interest rates as far upwards as people think, not whilst credit spreads are so wide.
Please bare with what may be stupid questions...
Im assuming that the RBA is responsible for controling inflation and economic growth. So they would also need to be wary of keeping the dollar at a point which deems our exports profitable and encourages foreign investment?
Soooooo
With the dollar moving towards parity they would want to counter act this buy selling some funds no? This inturn would create inflationary effects, which in turn would require higher interest rates??
Im assuming that the RBA is responsible for controling inflation and economic growth. So they would also need to be wary of keeping the dollar at a point which deems our exports profitable and encourages foreign investment?
Soooooo
With the dollar moving towards parity they would want to counter act this buy selling some funds no? This inturn would create inflationary effects, which in turn would require higher interest rates??
You might be neglecting what happens in the full term of your fixed period(s).
A lot of people struggle longer term with fixed rates. And bail out with big exit fees. You see it on here all the time.
A lot of people struggle longer term with fixed rates. And bail out with big exit fees. You see it on here all the time.
I am happy I fixed...despite people advising me in April, June, & August.....they are all under 5.74%.
Covered that base also....there is no penalty to break out now other than $300.....because the rates are now 6.49% and 6.99% respectively!
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