Any thoughts on beenleigh or eaglby area?

Hi XBenx,

trying to read between the lines in your post, I think you are suggesting that the existing property cycyle could mean that prices could be flat/drop over the next several years (3-5 years???) before seeing any growth - assuming the previous cycle is an indicator of history repeating itself.

My thoughts are that mostly prices in this area have now done nothing for about 18 months, I don't see that changing for a fair while yet.... I guess that is in line with my thinking that roughly the next three years will see not much growth in that area overall.

Could be wrong - often am!

Tim
 
Tim said:
Chris,

I didn't quite realise you were in Adelaide.... There was a very good article in April's API mag about Beenleigh (Two articles I think). I may have them and could post them down to you (article copy) if you cannot get hold of them. Basically they were saying that Beenleigh/Eagleby had had the highest unit growth in price in five years in QLD, or something impressive sounding like that, they also commented on the fact that while they were not amazingly salubrious suburbs, their continued growth was pretty much assured.
Hi Tim.

In November 2001 I was purchasing my second Redland Bay I/P and got talking to the real estate agents partner (who also had an interest in investing) and he was showing me some of his latest deals. He showed me a unit in Beenleigh which he didn't purchase, but asked would I like to buy it. To cut a long story short, I bought it for $59,500 and it is probably worth approx $130,000-140,000 now. It is in Main St, so close to shops, transport etc. It has always been tenanted and as you pointed out will only (hopefully) have continued growth.

I still look upon that purchase as a lucky one due to the fact that I wasn't even going up to Qld (live in Sydney) to look at that area but it sort of just fell in my lap.

Regards
Marty
 
Tim said:
Hi XBenx,

trying to read between the lines in your post, I think you are suggesting that the existing property cycyle could mean that prices could be flat/drop over the next several years (3-5 years???) before seeing any growth - assuming the previous cycle is an indicator of history repeating itself.

My thoughts are that mostly prices in this area have now done nothing for about 18 months, I don't see that changing for a fair while yet.... I guess that is in line with my thinking that roughly the next three years will see not much growth in that area overall.

Could be wrong - often am!

Tim


I follow Kingston / Woodridge and prices have come off about 10 % , maybe even 15 % since the peak in sept 03 . I assume eagleby and Beenleigh would be similar.

People who are buying now will not be getting income from their investment. There are people still buying but they're looking at paying a reasonable amount below asking prices and there are vendors who are droping their asking prices by 10 - 20 K . Some of these people were asking over the top , but some are dropping from what I would have thought were reasonable prices even considering the current market.

If you have a look at the second graph on my Rocky post , you can see what Logan did in the last property cycle.

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11656&page=1&pp=15


At this stage I don't see any reason for property to go up in that area at this stage. I won't expect to see further increases untill the next cycle is well underway , and it hasn't started yet.

From what I can see the internet has increased the rate at which prices move.

IMHO they are going down now.

See Change
 
Tim said:
Hi XBenx,

trying to read between the lines in your post, I think you are suggesting that the existing property cycyle could mean that prices could be flat/drop over the next several years (3-5 years???) before seeing any growth - assuming the previous cycle is an indicator of history repeating itself.

My thoughts are that mostly prices in this area have now done nothing for about 18 months, I don't see that changing for a fair while yet.... I guess that is in line with my thinking that roughly the next three years will see not much growth in that area overall.

Could be wrong - often am!

Tim

SO - 5 years of no growth for beenleigh - we know it has happened (and then some) before, but will it happen now??? I don't have the exact figures, but I recall the latest estimates were about 1000 people per week moving to SEQ - anyone is welcome to correct me on that. Was that number present in the 90s when the prices stayed so flat? It seems to me that yes the market is depressed but it can't stay that way forever if that number of people keep moving there(international + interstate migration)
 
knightm said:
It seems to me that yes the market is depressed but it can't stay that way forever if that number of people keep moving there(international + interstate migration)

I don't think anyone is implying it will stay that way forever. It's all a matter of timing.

See Change
 
I guess I am just curious about the demographics to see what was happening in the 90's compared to now. It seems to me to be that the fundamentals plus market sentiment/cycle stuff combine to give growth or otherwise.

Just had a quick squiz at the ABS site and the map search function only gives the years 99-03 Anyone know how to get the earlier records?
 
Having seen what has happened in the last cycle , I'm not that concerned about demographics. I've made good money in Hobart and Rockhampton both of which were meant to have mediocre demographics.

The main overall " fundamental " I look at before buying in an area is the vacancy rate. Eg Ingham was one place I looked at , but it had high vacancy rates so I didn't buy there.

I think Investor sentiment has a greater impact in periods of rapid capital growth than fundamentals though fundamentals will explain why some areas will improve over the longer term basis compared with others.

See Change
 
Hi All,

some good posts here. Marty I am pleased to hear you have done so well with your investment in Logan.

SeaChange I remember reading your original post which I thought was great reading. However on closer inspection of the graph, it is interesting to note that over 3 decades, (75-85, 85-95 and 95-2003), that the first two decades actually had almost constant growth, and it was only the last decade that had a big dip. This doesn't at all indicate to me that we are now going to repeat the graph of the past decade and enter a price drop over the next few years. Although I have to say my observations are that house prices have dropped around 10-15% in some parts of Eagleby, but the unit market in Beenleigh just seems to have remained stable.

As for whether it goes up, down or flat - who knows! All the demographics and statistics in the world are probably not going to help as much as hindsight, but my assessment is that ongoing pressure in population will be simply by good for Beenleigh CBD prices, and that the chances of long term price reductions has to be assessed against the demographics of population shifts to the area.

Sounds like you had great timing in Rocky SeaChange!

Cheers,
Timbo
 
hi all, this is my first post so don't grill me. got some info out of the GOLD COAST BULLETIN (i work there) newspaper on Beenleigh.

I recently purchased a property in Marsden (about 10min west of b'leigh) so have looked into the entire area a fair bit.

Currently there is $31.5M being spent on Beenleigh Rd as it is a terrible bottleneck at peak hours, construction has begun! These road upgrades are from beenleigh to Edens landing. It has been touted by GCCC that beenleigh will become the commercial district for the northen Gold Coast.

Beenleigh has had no new commercial buildings planned in a long time. This is changing.

Yatala is earmarked as the Gold Coasts industrial precint with some 35,000 people expected to be employed in the next 5yrs and with a direct rail link why the hell not.

BUT land in beenleigh is running low so where next?
Waterford (next to marsden) is awaiting a resedential developement to the tune of $120M(Delfin and Lend Lease).

The cane land will not be available for developement as the qld government wants to reduce urban sprawl!
That is all for now(can't give it all away) hope i was of some help if you have any other queries just ask.
 
Tim said:
Hi XBenx,

trying to read between the lines in your post, I think you are suggesting that the existing property cycyle could mean that prices could be flat/drop over the next several years (3-5 years???) before seeing any growth - assuming the previous cycle is an indicator of history repeating itself.

My thoughts are that mostly prices in this area have now done nothing for about 18 months, I don't see that changing for a fair while yet.... I guess that is in line with my thinking that roughly the next three years will see not much growth in that area overall.

Could be wrong - often am!

Tim

I always keep past cycles in mind... As long as you acknowledge and plan for that their may be some flat or negative growth ahead then you've done all you can...
 
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