They are 'real' versus 'nominal'. Real has all the noise filtered out like inflation, subsidies etc. This graph represents a national average which more often than not is below many peoples expectations and even experiences. The data represents 'mean' trend levels and you can benchmark your own experiences against these to see how your travelling.
ANZ Bank Tips 2 More Interest Rate Cuts - More Fuel For Positivity
- Thread starter Lord Shanghai
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They are 'real' versus 'nominal'. Real has all the noise filtered out like inflation, subsidies etc. This graph represents a national average which more often than not is below many peoples expectations and even experiences. The data represents 'mean' trend levels and you can benchmark your own experiences against these to see how your travelling.
Don't feel too bad. You may be in a group that represents 60 - 80% of PI's. With ATO stats we can get a handle on how many are NG but it nigh on impossible to figure out how many PI's (as a %) are actually making a buck.
If it hasn't happened by now the chances that it will within the next 5 years is probably less than zero. The reality is your 'real' net worth (not nominal) may be deteriorating and if not right now probably will over the next 5 - 10.
You can't. You look for trends in the information not absolutes. The graph above is averages from each state and market compiled into a national breakdown.
Wow, such cheerfulness!
Reality. Sadly lacking here at times.
If PI's knew and understood the real picture rather than the utopian dream of property investment pushed down their throats year after year by a in-it-for-a-buck-at-any-cost industry many wouldn't bother and possibly move onto something a little more economically productive like building/investing in businesses that employ people.
I don't have a problem with PI per se. Too many wannabe investors have unrealistic expectations given their skill/knowledge level and acumen. But you can never pick the winners or losers. The one you think will bomb can turn out to be the go get'm mega PI.
pretty hard to go backwards with rents covering your cost of money and your ol friend inflation eating up your debt. that's why it is a no brainer investment... load up as much as you can, it's a free carry from greater society
In my world probabilities usually range from zero to 100%.
I guess your reality must be a little different from the rest of us
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Don't you love it, some things never change...
In my world probabilities usually range from zero to 100%.
I guess your reality must be a little different from the rest of us
Goodluck with that theory.
He/she has not benefited from the biggest boom the world let alone AU has ever seen. Now as the big ponzi unravels globally and impacts on AU's economy you think they have a better than zero chance of lifting the boat.
People luv to wave their nominal numbers around as if they're actually making 'real' dollars. You start digging into their balance sheets and crunch the numbers and many would have been better off buying a lotto ticket every week.
Then there's the accidental investor who made a buck or two bubbling along with hardly a clue, dropping a dollar here and picking up another up there. Who followed simple investment theory because they weren't sophisticated enough to really understand what they were doing but because of the biggest ponzi CB printing credit spree in history actually came out on top more by good luck than good management. .
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pretty hard to go backwards with rents covering your cost of money and your ol friend inflation eating up your debt. that's why it is a no brainer investment... load up as much as you can, it's a free carry from greater society
Inflation only eats your debt if your property appreciates and your income from it increases.
In this case that's not happening and this example is not a rare occurrence by any stretch.
If fixed assets like property catch the deflationary bug (and that's a very real possibility) there will be a lot of people in for a world of hurt if their leverage becomes unmanageable.
Right about now, I'm expecting a rant about all fiat currencies going to zero... Blah blah blah
It never ceases to amaze me why people sit on threads they dislike, don't agree with or have issues with but instead of putting up some intelligible argument to the contrary prefer to stoop to childish theatrics for effect.
Freckle, just curious here. Seeing you are on a property forum, do you actually own anything? Your musings are mostly doom and gloom, even though we are seeing the lowest interest rates for more than 50 years.
I dont see much data-driven evidence-based analysis and reasoning...
I think, and I am generalising, that people who come to this forum are trying to just simply do more than "just the average".
I started investing in property originally as I saw it as a simple, fairly stable asset class to invest in for the long term.
I came to this forum as I wanted to learn and get ideas/opinions etc from others who also wanted to get ahead.
It has been a great source of information, inspiration and motivation at times.
You keep talking about people needing a "dose of reality".
But the emotion attached to property purchases cannot be ignored as a HUGE factor.
Property is not just an investor driven market, the bulk of transactions are made by people just wanting a roof over thier heads for themselves and family, shelter is a basic need after all.
economic data, trends... etcetera probably play less of a part in the "health" of the australian property markets than you give them credit for.
It's always seemed alot more simple than that to me, my simple opinion only obviously.
To get ahead, you have to give it a go, give it a crack, take a punt on something that makes sense to you.
The simplicity of residential real estate investment makes sense to me, it's a tangible, real asset that gives shelter and over the long term appreciats in value and rent return.
I am not against you or anyone having an opinion in opposition to my own at all, I just think a bit of positive reinforcement from like minded investors is more important than heeding the warnings of one individuals opinion that's it all going to go to poo.
Absolutely. The quest for information, knowledge and understanding will take those interested to many corners.
And it is for the most part but it does have its periods of volatility and deflation in some cases for long periods. The last was after the 1890's crash which saw AU properties steadily decline for almost 50 years. It was only the post war boom that lifted it out of that trend.
There is much useful information to be had here but that is tempered by a culture of only looking at one side of the ledger. Much of the rhetoric lacks balance. There is a concerted effort to ignore potential and real threats.
Sorry but you're wrong. Investor driven activity at its lowest was 18% of the market and now approaches 50%
The health of all property markets is a priority of government and banks. Governments in the sense that it provides substantial revenues that oil the wheels and asset wealth that supposedly generates the wealth effect. the last 30 years has seen a move to use private property as the family credit card as values rose. That was no accident in govt policy.
Banks (off the top of my head) have property as something like 60% of their primary asset base with which they use as leverage to create even more credit. Banks rely largely on property to create credit (print money). Credit must always expand and it always does it exponentially. If credit contract the money supply shrinks (= monetary tightening) the economy contracts money velocity slows and all of sudden things start going south.
Property is a cornerstone of an economy and everything economic is integrally connected to property.
Agree, however, making sense means having a 'balanced' view of a subject not a one dimensional view espoused here. My view exposes alternate dimensions to the subject and should help people to have a better understanding of potential negative implications alive and well in the market place.
The numbers of PI's not making money vastly outnumber those who do. The idea that property is idiot proof, always go up etc is market hype and a message hammered into the heads of the general public day in and day out. The winners are lauded from the roof tops and glamorised. The losers are poked away in a corner or shamed into keeping quiet because they are (or believe they are) seen as failures. Failure is punished.
There's an overwhelming volume of positive reinforcement. I'm one solitary voice (there are some others) who has the balls to speak up. You only have to see the reaction I invoke to see why others are reluctant to voice anything other than the party line.
Have done, currently don't, considering future positions.
LS low interest rates benefit a few and are the last bullets CB's have to fire. The economy(s) both globally and nationally are tanking. Now you can take that as doom and gloom or whatever. It doesn't really worry me.
But here's the thing. Economies go in cycles. Some predictable some not. What is certain is the end of an era type cycle where a complete reset occurs. For some that means doom because they're too busy ignoring it. For others it means opportunity.
Which one are you going to be - open minded or close minded? I'm positioning to take opportunities on the other side of the reset. What are you doing?
Okay so for the last 60 years property prices in australia have continued to rise along with wages and rents and inflation....it's boring, but that's how it works, it's not idiot proof, it's hard to get a quick return if you pay too much in the first place, but as a long term simple asset class, it's been a good bet.
Will it be in the next 50 years?
Why not?
There were reasons 10 years ago to not invest, just as there are now, just as there probably was 50 years ago.
It's always the right time for the "right" deal
Sorry if that's not factual or data backed, I am a gut guy, unsophisticated and basic
Will it be in the next 50 years?
Why not?
There were reasons 10 years ago to not invest, just as there are now, just as there probably was 50 years ago.
It's always the right time for the "right" deal
Sorry if that's not factual or data backed, I am a gut guy, unsophisticated and basic
I know that property prices went nowhere during the first half of the 20th century. However it was a different social structure then and it was not considered normal for the Average Joes to buy their housing.
My theory is that it wasn't until the locals woke up to what the European immigrants were onto before it became "normal' to buy one's own house. From what my parents and grandies have said, there was massive public housing available and it was "normal" to live in public housing. Even if not public housing, it was still normal to rent. Other than returning soldiers who were allocated housing, the idea of buying a house in the city just didn't register. Public Housing tenancies could be set up so that a part of the rent went towards eventual ownership, we know many people who lived under those circumstances. I believe it was normal to own land in the country though, just not so much in the developing cities.
I would think that the social changes that took place in the 1970s would have increased the opportunity of home ownership - women remaining in the workplace after marriage and the availability of contraception would facilitate higher disposable household incomes. In 1980 I bought my first home with a 10% deposit, previously unheard of. At the same time, it became obvious that anyone with a job could afford a house of their own, in my case the repayments were less than the rental my house would have cost. No wonder prices increased from then on, it became "normal" to buy a house. My husband and I both had it drummed into us for the previous decade that "You are a loser if you rent".
I cant see the social structure of Australia willingly retreating to times gone by, when women were less educated than men, when women were not allowed to work once they hit childbearing age, and it was normal to get married at 17 or 18. I believe that Australians will want more and more, not less and less. As long as developers offer new houses with sparkling appliances and stone bench tops, or better, the average Joe will find a way to get their hands onto one. Be it ever smaller blocks of land, or going upwards, they will still want a place of their own, only to submit to a landlord when it is something they chose of their own free will.
My theory is that it wasn't until the locals woke up to what the European immigrants were onto before it became "normal' to buy one's own house. From what my parents and grandies have said, there was massive public housing available and it was "normal" to live in public housing. Even if not public housing, it was still normal to rent. Other than returning soldiers who were allocated housing, the idea of buying a house in the city just didn't register. Public Housing tenancies could be set up so that a part of the rent went towards eventual ownership, we know many people who lived under those circumstances. I believe it was normal to own land in the country though, just not so much in the developing cities.
I would think that the social changes that took place in the 1970s would have increased the opportunity of home ownership - women remaining in the workplace after marriage and the availability of contraception would facilitate higher disposable household incomes. In 1980 I bought my first home with a 10% deposit, previously unheard of. At the same time, it became obvious that anyone with a job could afford a house of their own, in my case the repayments were less than the rental my house would have cost. No wonder prices increased from then on, it became "normal" to buy a house. My husband and I both had it drummed into us for the previous decade that "You are a loser if you rent".
I cant see the social structure of Australia willingly retreating to times gone by, when women were less educated than men, when women were not allowed to work once they hit childbearing age, and it was normal to get married at 17 or 18. I believe that Australians will want more and more, not less and less. As long as developers offer new houses with sparkling appliances and stone bench tops, or better, the average Joe will find a way to get their hands onto one. Be it ever smaller blocks of land, or going upwards, they will still want a place of their own, only to submit to a landlord when it is something they chose of their own free will.
But did you open your mind to the possibilities recently/today? did you position yourself to make money from property over the last 2-3 years? You may have just noticed the opportunities, as there were many rising property markets in Australia and many property investors making money.
My guess is you missed the boat, because you are too busy worried about what might happen in the future rather than focusing on today and how to maximise opportunities today.
That reminds what happened to Ebola??? another one of your happy go lucky threads, keep smiling
MTR
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty"
Winston Churchill
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