Apparently we are heading for a resession

[fernfurn]

The economist Keane sold his house about 15 years ago because there was going to be a 40% drop, I bet he couldnt buy another house now for what he sold his for.

 

[Deltaberry]

Apparently we are heading for a recession?

Correct me if I am wrong? but we are not heading for a recession or 40% medium house price drop. I always like to talk to new people and go about life with the motto that I can learn at least one think from everyone I meet.

I was very happy to see a work colleague on a real estate website over lunch. I unwittingly approached said colleague and within 5 mins I was cursing myself for never finishing the time travel machine I always wanted to build at Uni. I would hop in and slap myself before even starting the conversation with the gentleman.

Apparently the world economy is stalling, China is crashing and Australia is already (unbeknownst to the people running the country, people much smarted than me ? yes we could argue the point!!) in a subprime mortgage crisis. Defaulting on mortgage loans has gone up and aliens are about to attack. Ok I made the last one up.. he did not actually say that.

So waiting for the 40% drop in house pricing is apparently what we are waiting for these days before we get in and buy that first PPOR. No effort from me could help change his mind (I tried for about 2 minutes)?. Or end the conversation.

I can see the point that sometimes caution is possibly the best way forward. We already had various warnings from the RBA that we should not be banking on future capital growth in property as seen over the last few years. But seriously?.

And now I find myself forever marked as the go-2-guy at the office coffee machine to talk doom and gloom with?. Someone shoot me.

If, at any stage in my life, I had listened to my supposed learned colleagues about doom and gloom, I wouldn't now be in a position to retire with more net rent coming in at 28 than what they make in their jobs at 50.

 

[Future Assist]

haha. remember Y2K was going to be the end some type of 'skynet' computer was going to rule us all and launch all of our nukes onto each other... yeah...


Jim

_____________________________________

Future Assist

SMSF Specialist Administration and Investment Advice

1300 118 618

 

[Mitch1]

haha. remember Y2K was going to be the end some type of 'skynet' computer was going to rule us all and launch all of our nukes onto each other... yeah...


Jim

_____________________________________

Future Assist

SMSF Specialist Administration and Investment Advice

1300 118 618

We flew dublin- Sydney that day, (Y2K) given everyone said the planes would fall out of the sky we thought we'd get a cheap deal..... Nope, apparently it was a privilege!

 

[sanj]

Retail spending is down,wages have not increased a great deal,everyday living expenses has increased,unemployment on the rise and more job losses,as we smoothly roll along.

Might have a better picture by mid 2015.

that is not correct, retail spending is up (albeit only marginally).

"The latest ABS Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover rose 0.6 per cent in June 2014, seasonally adjusted, following a fall of 0.3 per cent in May 2014.


Through the year, Australian retail turnover rose 5.5 per cent in June 2014, seasonally adjusted, compared to June 2013. "

 

[kathryn d]

Retail spending may be up....which may be true.
If they are using credit (which many do), this is fine, until they reach their credit limit, or lose their job/income.

 

[spludgey]

I do actually believe that we're heading for a cliff of one way or another, but I don't know whether it's going to be a deflation or hyperinflation. I'm obviously hoping for the later.

 

[Spades]

that is not correct, retail spending is up (albeit only marginally).

"The latest ABS Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover rose 0.6 per cent in June 2014, seasonally adjusted, following a fall of 0.3 per cent in May 2014.


Through the year, Australian retail turnover rose 5.5 per cent in June 2014, seasonally adjusted, compared to June 2013. "

Evening sanj,

Myself i don't go by stats,figures,shitty media and pretty graphs.

I go by what is mentioned on the street.

Don't fall for the beat up.

Ps.I sincerely thank you for taking an interest in my posts...It takes the heat off the good guy aka Bayview.

 

[sanj]

So the official abs stats of retail spending being up 5.5% are wrong because you say so?

Personally I'm surprised at this figure myself as I do know certain retail sectors have been struggling but I'm yet to be convinced that these figures are entirely inaccurate

 

[Spades]

G'Morning sanj,


Not because i say so mate,personally i don't believe that 5.5% is accurate and that's my opinion.

The 5.5% is offset by falls in other sectors.

Rise and falls in retail sectors and states-link:

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats\[email protected]?Opendocument

June quarterly-link:

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]&prodno=8501.0&issue=Jun 2014&num=&view=

I wouldn't get to excited.

 

[Ed Barton]

The economist Keane sold his house about 15 years ago because there was going to be a 40% drop, I bet he couldnt buy another house now for what he sold his for.

For the millionth time don't exaggerate.

 

[scientist]

I do actually believe that we're heading for a cliff of one way or another, but I don't know whether it's going to be a deflation or hyperinflation. I'm obviously hoping for the later.

I share a similar outlook and I also hope it's the latter, currently holding over a million in IP debt, would love to have some Zimbabwe style hyperinflation right bout now. Ok maybe not that extreme, maybe just 10% or so for a few years.

Just anecdotally, as a DINK in my late 20s with other DINK friends, every bozo and his wife is on 100k these days. When I graduated uni and was looking for grad jobs back in 2010, 100k was very elite. So that, in my experience, is a big factor of recent property price surges. If this trend continues, we certainly would expect upward pressure on CPI.