Are we on the cusp of an upswing for property?

Hi All,

After watching the hard economic news - jobs, retails sales, housing start, interest rates, and exhange rates....and also the

soft economics news - current affairs programs about how families are struggling, power bills, Baby John's march to Canberra to let Jooliaa know how hard it is live on $364pw for pensioners, doom and gloom news...

BELIEVE IT OR NOT WE MAY SEE AN UPWARD ON PROPERTY NEXT YEAR!

Why? Well for the following reasons based on crystal ball :p:

1. I think we have hit the peak in terms of interest rates...I am of the view that interest rates will head down during Aug-Oct period later this year (2011). You know what happens to demand for housing once rates drop...particularly NSW which is highly rate sensitive.

2. The cost living has increased to the point people are at breaking point and the government and more business savy companies (i.e. Coles) will start addressing this. Other sectors will follow suit driving down prices. I also reckon Oil prices will drop as I suspect the Libya situation will cool off ...maybe not resolved.

3. Labour has about 18 months before an election ....they need to ensure the current economic situation is turned around. If they don't the Libs will win. I think the Carbon Tax and tight budget will be the last straw. If Bazz in NSW does the opposite and borrows against the coffers he is going to look like a super hero if he kicks off infrastructure spending in NSW.

4. The Housing stats are pointing to a drop in housing starts and people taking loans. This means more renters...thus better rent returns. As I said in a previous thread. I paid 232.5 for a repossessed newish 3 brm T/H in Wyong an expect to get $330-$350pw.

5. A drop in interest rates will probably also stabilise our high dollar.

6. The immigration rates will edge up again out of necessity as there is a labout shortage emerging. We should see migrant rates go up to 300k from 180k on the quiet as we are scratching at the bottom of the barrell for local skills.

The key here is interest rates...once this drops we could see demand jump for properties.

I have put my money where my mouth is....I have already bought 2 properties well under market and intent to make another 2-3.

I know this is going to awaken the BEARS on this forum...I can already hear their growls..;)....don't worry...I am sitting on my porch with a shotgun!:p

Would be good to hear what others think....
 
You have omitted one minor factor Sash. We are experiencing a commodities boom and if there isn't an interest rate rise by the end of the year i'll post a naked pic of myself on this forum. Ok, semi naked, its a family forum.
 
Easy......easy....so long as your are wearing a mankini I think it would keep the forum members interested!!

On a more serious note talking to quite a few Perth agents....when you mention a commodity boom ....they say Pigs ar$e....even the guys in Hedland and Karratha are saying things have slowed a bit....

You have omitted one minor factor Sash. We are experiencing a commodities boom and if there isn't an interest rate rise by the end of the year i'll post a naked pic of myself on this forum. Ok, semi naked, its a family forum.
 
You have omitted one minor factor Sash. We are experiencing a commodities boom and if there isn't an interest rate rise by the end of the year i'll post a naked pic of myself on this forum. Ok, semi naked, its a family forum.

Maybe you could just strip to the waist.

Top or bottom, your choice.
 
Well, this little black duck is just about to go long on lead with everything I have (longer than I am on property) - just so you can fuel your bear gun with expensive pellets.

To save evand the bother I have a picture (edited for family viewing) I have attached to this message. Evand said only one interest rate rise.

The only 'out' for Aus that I see is that we are viewed as a quasi oil nation. This govt has screwed things up SO badly they have zero concept of what they have done. If we didn't have mining we would be totally completely screwed. Aside from that we don't have an economy. So, internationally we are a steel bin (just like after the war we were 'riding the sheeps back'). That being the case the $au could well move higher or stay above where we are now.

If the RB lowers rates, the destruction on the economy from the high spending WA/QLD will make the late 80's look like a Bowls Club gathering. If they raise rates the $ goes through the roof and destroys everything.

The RBA has been fighting this lunatic govt since the '20/20 summit'.

We in NSW/Vic are screwed.

Watch out guys. I don't consider myself close to ready - and I am weighted 50/50 with US property.

I didn't vote for them!
 

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You're omitting another big factor in my view too and that's confidence. Even though I'm in a really good position to buy again, I'm just not confident of buying at the moment. How do others feel?

I can't see it happening personally.

Great buys though Sash!
 
BELIEVE IT OR NOT WE MAY SEE AN UPWARD ON PROPERTY NEXT YEAR!

Why? Well for the following reasons based on crystal ball :p:

1. I think we have hit the peak in terms of interest rates...I am of the view that interest rates will head down during Aug-Oct period later this year (2011). You know what happens to demand for housing once rates drop...particularly NSW which is highly rate sensitive.

2. The cost living has increased to the point people are at breaking point and the government and more business savy companies (i.e. Coles) will start addressing this. Other sectors will follow suit driving down prices. I also reckon Oil prices will drop as I suspect the Libya situation will cool off ...maybe not resolved..

Oh, you property bulls are amusing at times.
Interest rates are heading no way but up. Inflation is spreading around the world, and the central banks worldwide will have no option but the raise interest rates. Europe, as messed up as it still is will likely raise rates today. China is fighting inflation, US will follow. Australia will not be immune to further inflationary pressures.
Cost of living to head down sash??:confused: Maybe you have not hear about the recent increases in everyday goods and services (and the Carbon Tax probably next year). Family's will be under even more pressure than currently as we progress through 2011 and into 2012.

And my favorite, the PIIGS domino's, with Portugal the next in line for a bail out.

Property is heading down the next 2 years.
 
Nice Mankini!:eek::D

Be careful....Evand maybe around to borrow yours!;)

I guess I am putting my money where my mouth is....more properties for me!

Well, this little black duck is just about to go long on lead with everything I have (longer than I am on property) - just so you can fuel your bear gun with expensive pellets.

To save evand the bother I have a picture (edited for family viewing) I have attached to this message. Evand said only one interest rate rise.

The only 'out' for Aus that I see is that we are viewed as a quasi oil nation. This govt has screwed things up SO badly they have zero concept of what they have done. If we didn't have mining we would be totally completely screwed. Aside from that we don't have an economy. So, internationally we are a steel bin (just like after the war we were 'riding the sheeps back'). That being the case the $au could well move higher or stay above where we are now.

If the RB lowers rates, the destruction on the economy from the high spending WA/QLD will make the late 80's look like a Bowls Club gathering. If they raise rates the $ goes through the roof and destroys everything.

The RBA has been fighting this lunatic govt since the '20/20 summit'.

We in NSW/Vic are screwed.

Watch out guys. I don't consider myself close to ready - and I am weighted 50/50 with US property.

I didn't vote for them!
 
Hi All,

After watching the hard economic news - jobs, retails sales, housing start, interest rates, and exhange rates....and also the

soft economics news - current affairs programs about how families are struggling, power bills, Baby John's march to Canberra to let Jooliaa know how hard it is live on $364pw for pensioners, doom and gloom news...

BELIEVE IT OR NOT WE MAY SEE AN UPWARD ON PROPERTY NEXT YEAR!

Why? Well for the following reasons based on crystal ball :p:

1. I think we have hit the peak in terms of interest rates...I am of the view that interest rates will head down during Aug-Oct period later this year (2011). You know what happens to demand for housing once rates drop...particularly NSW which is highly rate sensitive.

2. The cost living has increased to the point people are at breaking point and the government and more business savy companies (i.e. Coles) will start addressing this. Other sectors will follow suit driving down prices. I also reckon Oil prices will drop as I suspect the Libya situation will cool off ...maybe not resolved.

3. Labour has about 18 months before an election ....they need to ensure the current economic situation is turned around. If they don't the Libs will win. I think the Carbon Tax and tight budget will be the last straw. If Bazz in NSW does the opposite and borrows against the coffers he is going to look like a super hero if he kicks off infrastructure spending in NSW.

4. The Housing stats are pointing to a drop in housing starts and people taking loans. This means more renters...thus better rent returns. As I said in a previous thread. I paid 232.5 for a repossessed newish 3 brm T/H in Wyong an expect to get $330-$350pw.

5. A drop in interest rates will probably also stabilise our high dollar.

6. The immigration rates will edge up again out of necessity as there is a labout shortage emerging. We should see migrant rates go up to 300k from 180k on the quiet as we are scratching at the bottom of the barrell for local skills.

The key here is interest rates...once this drops we could see demand jump for properties.

I have put my money where my mouth is....I have already bought 2 properties well under market and intent to make another 2-3.

I know this is going to awaken the BEARS on this forum...I can already hear their growls..;)....don't worry...I am sitting on my porch with a shotgun!:p

Would be good to hear what others think....

I'd submit you are wrong just about everywhere ;)

1. Interest Rates. Next move is up. The question is when. The RBA pause is largely about identifying potential flow-on from Japan taking the edge off China and thereby easing inflationary pressures.

2. Cost of Living. The argument that because it is high that somehow sources of said cost will magically change their margins or input costs is, to say the least, fanciful. Milk and/or VB are not the principle household costs for most Australians...my cousin Bruce being the exception, though strong bones is no compensation for liver failure.

3. Barry's best option is to move Sydney somewhere else. Anything short of that is just playing around the edges. Better infrastructure won't drive demand.

4. Drop in credit demand is an indicator for house price movement...just not a good one.

5. A drop in interest rates (see comment 1) would likely lead to a drop in the AUD which would see an increase in fuel prices (see point 2). Milk being half the price of petrol is not much good unless you can run your transport infrastructure on dairy products which my cousin Bruce has already shown not to be possible and he got a DUI for his trouble (damn you Coles and your cheap milk/VB)

6. 427 visa migrants to weld pipe in Karratha are not going to plug the gap in NSW resulting from the closure of the Chinese/Indian edumigration scam, even if the multi-nationals building in NW WA can be convinced to use on-shore contractors and stop shipping the lumpy work overseas. That said, cousin Bruce has a bunch of Estonian mates who are thinking of migrating based on the copious amounts of cheap milk on offer, though for some reason they are concerned Oz is full of VB drinking nutters.

Anyone buying ATM should be looking for yield first and foremost as genuine CG is most places is not something one should be betting on.
 
I am confident, I have just made purchase # 6 for the year so far.... (buy and hold property)

Buy well and below market value, have strong cashflow and who cares about the market.

Oh also I have seen cap growth from this year (not inncluding manufactured growth I created) and made some good rent increases....

If interest rates go up, I am ready to buy more, if they go down... well my cashflow looks really really good.

As kyiosaki would say, "its important to have a balanced ship" and all cargo tied down.
 
Can't be much of a favorite they asked for assistance yesterday

Yeah, but I've been saying since December that Portugal would be next in late March/April 2011. Spot on. I know they talked about asking for assistance yesterday.
Next crystal ball prediction Spain bailout - Dec 2011/Jan 2012.

As for property, sash should have had "Are we on the cusp of a substantial correction for property?"
 
I think the market will be flat in the next few years. Aus can't be 100% immune from the weak global economy and the resource boom is likely to keep interest rate up

Market upswing is great for me, but if the market continue to shoot up like last couple of years then it really is a bubble. I much prefer slow and steady growth while rent/income catch up
 
Prices arent going up until I get my South Yarra victorian mansion for a "fair" price. Until then Im going to moan and bi*@# about not getting what I want.
 
I think the market will be flat in the next few years. Aus can't be 100% immune from the weak global economy and the resource boom is likely to keep interest rate up

Market upswing is great for me, but if the market continue to shoot up like last couple of years then it really is a bubble. I much prefer slow and steady growth while rent/income catch up

This is a good post.

The market is already high in most places, and if it keeps climbing then we really will be starting to get into bubble territory. Personally, I don't think we are in a bubble, more at the top of a higher than average upswing. There are lots of reasons why property has become expensive, but the market has to take a breather and subside for a while.

If prices don't keep increasing, then demand can rebuild as wages grow over the next few years, and the cycle can start again.
 
Blue
What are you doing back here?
You were not meant to come back before 2013 and on your return you were going to tell us how wrong we were with our predictions

Yeah, a cameo appearance here and there. I can progressively tell you how wrong you are as my predictions eventuate one by one, rather than in bulk in 2013.:p

I think sash's assumptions on an increasing property market, falling interest rates, falling oil price are . The only thing that is currently keeping the RBA from having to lift rates immediately is the rising Australia dollar, which is containing inflation lower than it otherwise might be.
 
Yeah, a cameo appearance here and there. I can progressively tell you how wrong you are as my predictions eventuate one by one, rather than in bulk in 2013.:p.
I'm yet to see 1 of your predictions eventuate.
By 2013 my portfolio would have gone up by 30% (even with higher interest rates)
 
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